Israel military action against Syria by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Nov 30 · $312 today · $166K traded · $3.1K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

The odds

32%November 30
  • October 3124%▲ 6
  • November 3032%▲ 2

How the odds have moved

October 31: 26% on Oct 20, 24% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 25, 11 PM ETOctober 31: 8% → 23%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
August 31 <1% ▼ 1 1¢ $31K
September 15 <1% ▼ 3 1¢ $100.00 $14.2K
September 30 <1% ▼ 2 0¢ 1¢ $30.5K
October 31 24% ▲ 6 7¢ 42¢ $2.39 $85.6K
November 30 32% ▲ 2 20¢ 43¢ $2.33 $4.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu

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  • Yair Lapid<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
  • Gideon Sa’ar<1%
  • Yariv Levin<1%
  • Moshe Feiglin<1%
  • Ayelet Shaked<1%
  • Yoaz Hendel<1%
  • Nir Barkat<1%
  • Gilad Erdan<1%
  • Ofer Winter<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions