Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 28 · $108K today · $2M traded · $745K at stake · prices read 4 min ago

The odds

67%Chiang Wan-an

Chiang Wan-an67%▲ 4
Puma Shen33%▼ 4
Kuo Hsi<1%

How the odds have moved

Chiang Wan-an: 59% on Oct 20, 67% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Chiang Wan-an	67%	▲ 4	66¢	68¢	$1.47	$891K
Puma Shen	33%	▼ 4	32¢	33¢	$2.99	$945K
Kuo Hsi	<1%			0¢		$136K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Taipei Mayor, Chiang Wan-an, Puma Shen

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Puma Shen’s Surge In Taiwan Recalls Mamdani Rise In NY, Raises StakesForbes · 4 days ago“You would assume Chiang would be on a glide path to victory,” said the Washington, D.C.-headquartered Brookings Institution’s China and Taiwan expert Ryan Hass in a recent interview. “There are some parallels to the Mamdani-Cuomo election…
Kevin Tsai says he has never supported Taiwan independence台北時報 · 37 h agoTelevision host Kevin Tsai (蔡康永) last night broke his silence over a controversy surrounding his appearance at a campaign event for Democratic Progressive Party Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋), saying he had never supported Taiwan…
China accused of pressuring families of Taiwan politicians ahead of key electionNews18 · 2 days agoTaipei [Taiwan], October 24 (ANI): China is allegedly stepping up efforts to intimidate relatives of Taiwanese politicians it considers supporters of independence, raising concerns about possible interference in Taiwan’s upcoming…
2026 Elections: Shen launches ‘policy island’ as Chiang rallies allies台北時報 · 2 days agoDemocratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator and Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋) has issued his policy platform and campaign materials, as Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), who is seeking…
A trader just placed a $11K bet on Puma Shen winning the next Taipei Mayor electionQuiver Quantitative · 6 days agoQuiver Quantitative On Monday, October 19 at 5:27 PM ET, a trader bought $10,790 of Yes shares at 43% odds on Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? on Polymarket. If the bet wins, the position would pay out about $14,436 in…
Taipei defends the removal of ‘political’ sticker from bulletin台北時報 · 4 days agoTaipei officials yesterday defended their decision to ask Our Theatre (阮劇團) to remove stickers supporting Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator and Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈柏楊) from a public bulletin at Taipei’s…
Shen overtakes Chiang in Taipei mayoral poll台北時報 · 6 days agoDemocratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator and Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋) has seen his support jump to 50.3 percent, while support for Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has fallen to…
Visualization: Taiwan’s Military Air BasesTaiwan Security Monitor · 4 days agoTaiwan Security Monitor Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an has proposed closing Songshan Airport and redeveloping the site as an AI park. Songshan is one of 14 military and dual-use airfields Taiwan operates, and the only one in the capital. About…
Su, candidate for New Taipei mayor, proposes developing tourism — Taipei TimesUA.NEWS · 5 days agoUA.NEWS Su, candidate for New Taipei mayor, proposes developing tourism — Taipei Times In New Taipei City, Taiwan, Democratic Progressive Party candidate Su Chiao-hui proposed stepping up tourism development in the Jinshan and Wanli…
Beijing targeting family of ‘separatists’: US report台北時報 · 4 days agoThe People’s Republic of China (PRC) could be intensifying suppression of family members of so-called “diehard Taiwanese separatists,” including the father of Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋), in an attempt to sway the upcoming…
US think tank report highlights Chinese interference in Taipei race台北時報 · 4 days agoThe People's Republic of China (PRC) could be intensifying suppression of family members of so-called “diehard Taiwanese separatists,” including the father of Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋), in an attempt to sway the upcoming…
KMT Expulsion Petition Against Jaw Shaw-kong Sparks Debate Over Media FairnessVision Times · 6 days agoHome » World » KMT Expulsion Petition Against Jaw Shaw-kong Sparks Debate Over Media Fairness An effort to expel veteran broadcaster and former vice presidential candidate Jaw Shaw-kong from Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) for interviewing an…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 28, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$2M

Today$108K

This week$483K

At stake$745K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Centra

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions