Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $2.9K today · $3.4M traded · $146K at stake · prices read 16 min ago

The odds

26%December 31

October 315%
November 3017%
December 3126%

How the odds have moved

October 31: 8% on Oct 20, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
August 12	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$14.4K
August 15	<1%			0¢		$258K
August 22	<1%			0¢		$186K
August 31	<1%	▼ 2	0¢	1¢		$628K
September 7	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$15.1K
September 14	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$422K
September 21	<1%			0¢		$143K
September 30	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$829K
October 31	5%		4¢	5¢	$20.00	$607K
November 30	17%		16¢	18¢	$5.56	$16K
December 31	26%		25¢	26¢	$3.85	$117K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement

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Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News · 46 h agoFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane…
New threats could push US and Iran toward warsemafor.com · 41 h agoThe US director of national intelligence warned that Iran was in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against American officials abroad, prompting personnel evacuations and heightening the risk of a return to all-out war. US President…
Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warnsFox News · 41 h ago‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns…
Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER!Fox News · 46 h agoPresident Donald Trump sharply criticized Barack Obama's previous JCPOA deal with Iran, calling it the 'worst and dumbest deal' he has ever seen. Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER! President Donald Trump sharply criticized…
US intel warns Iran is planning lethal plots against AmericansFox News · 43 h agoLexington Institute vice president Rebecca Grant and national security strategist Jake Sotiriadis join ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss warnings that Iran is in advanced stages of planning lethal plots against Americans. US intel warns Iran is…
Iran may be rebuilding nuclear sites, satellite images revealFox News · 47 h agoFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports of Iran rebuilding its nuclear facilities, President Donald Trump's options for confronting Tehran and more. Iran may be rebuilding nuclear sites, satellite images reveal Fox…
Trump weighing options on Iran: Make a deal or finish them offFox News · 41 h ago‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Trump weighing options on Iran: Make a deal or finish them off…
Israel warns Iran with massive military drill as expert flags risk of accidental warFox News · 42 h agoIsraeli national security expert warns a single missile launch could spark rapid escalation amid major military drill. Israel warns Iran with massive military drill as expert flags risk of accidental war Israeli national security expert…
How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and IsraelNPR · 2 days agoNPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks with Middle East Institute senior fellow Natan Sachs about striking Iran, developments in the West Bank, and elections in Israel and the U.S. How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and Israel NPR's…
Latest news on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran — stories, videos, latest coverageCBS News · 2 days agoPresident Trump said Iran was trying to drive up oil prices before the midterms by lying about ships hitting mines or being struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts tell CBS News geography, interceptor shortages and evolving…
Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for Khamenei’s dayslong funeralPOLITICO · 2 days agoGen. Ahmad Vahidi attended a meeting about the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and sat alongside the late supreme leader's casket, Iranian state media photos showed. Powerful general in Iran emerges from hiding as Tehran prepares for…
Saudi Arabia says it intercepted missiles and drones from Iran-backed HouthisCNBC · 2 days agoSaudi Arabia intercepted drones and missiles headed for several cities, including the capital Riyadh, fired by Iran-aligned Houthis on Sunday, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said. The ongoing fighting between Saudi Arabia and the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$3.4M

Today$2.9K

This week$101K

At stake$146K

In the news354 headlines today, 4,188 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management p

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions