Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $9 today · $485K traded · $135K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

9%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 8% on Oct 20, 9% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	9%		8¢	10¢	$10.00	$485K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu

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Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld, NetanyahuFox News · 40 h agoA group of people protested outside Jerry Seinfeld's Washington, D.C. show. They chanted, used vulgar language and violently smashed posters of the comedian and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld…
Netanyahu, 34 other ‘Israelis’ face trial in Turkey over Gaza flotillaRoya News · 2 days agoA Turkish court has launched proceedings against ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 34 other ‘Israelis’ over the interception of the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, maintaining arrest warrants for all defendants and…
Israeli election to test Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to hold powerCBS News · 47 h agoCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday 8am
Israel votes: Netanyahu’s future on the line – Full Story podcastthe Guardian · 47 h agoIsraeli citizens are about to vote in what’s being seen as elections that are almost existential when it comes to the future identity of the country. That’s because since the October 7 attack by Hamas in which about 1,200 Israelis were…
Thousands rally against Netanyahu in Tel Aviv ahead of Israeli elections – videothe Guardian · 45 h agoThousands of people gathered in Tel Aviv on Saturday in a final protest against the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government ahead of what has been described as the most consequential election in the country's…
This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in IsraelNPR · 39 h agoA former Israeli general is the main center-right challenger hoping to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israeli elections this week. This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in Israel A former…
The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli ElectionFox News · 3 days agoPaul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli Election Paul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman
Why a far-right cabinet minister in Israel has Netanyahu's earNPR · 3 days agoIsrael's most far-right cabinet minister helped dictate hardline policies toward Palestinians in recent years. Benjamin Netanyahu vows to give him a senior position if Netanyahu is reelected next week. Why a far-right cabinet minister in…
2 beaches in Gaza and Israel. Just 40 miles apart, but worlds awayNPR · 2 days agoIsraelis prepare for an early evening swim in the beach town of Jaffa. To the north are the high-rises of Tel Aviv, home to hotels, apartment buildings and tech companies. Frank Langfitt/NPR hide caption JAFFA, Israel, and GAZA CITY, Gaza…
Thousands of Israelis rally against Netanyahu gov’t days before electionAl Jazeera · 3 days agoOpposition figures join Tel Aviv protesters demanding an independent October 7 inquiry. Thousands of Israelis are protesting against the government and calling for an independent inquiry into the security failures that led to the October…
Hamas says it agrees to new Gaza ceasefire proposal, but Israel makes counterofferCBS News · 2 days agoMarch 29, 2025 / 9:20 PM EDT / CBS/AP The Hamas militant group said Saturday it has accepted a new Gaza ceasefire proposal from mediators Egypt and Qatar, but Israel said it has made a counter-proposal in "full coordination" with the third…
Israel election tests Netanyahu's rule amid Gaza war falloutIndia Today · 29 h agoIsrael will hold parliamentary elections on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeking to remain in power amid debate over his government's handling of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, the wars that followed, and its…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$485K

Today$9

This week$5K

At stake$135K

In the news673 headlines today, 4,821 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions