Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $893 today · $1.8M traded · $138K at stake · prices read 30 min ago

The odds

12%Somaliland

Somaliland12%▲ 2
Jordan8%▼ 1
Syria7%
Qatar6%
Oman5%
Kuwait5%
Pakistan5%▼ 1
Lebanon5%
Saudi Arabia5%
Egypt4%
Azerbaijan4%
Turkey4%

How the odds have moved

Somaliland: 14% on Oct 20, 12% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Somaliland	12%	▲ 2	7¢	17¢	$5.88	$124K
Jordan	8%	▼ 1	5¢	10¢	$10.00	$13.8K
Syria	7%		4¢	10¢	$10.10	$171K
Qatar	6%		3¢	9¢	$10.75	$9.1K
Oman	5%		5¢	6¢	$16.95	$187K
Kuwait	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.67	$87.9K
Pakistan	5%	▼ 1	3¢	7¢	$15.15	$9.7K
Lebanon	5%		4¢	5¢	$20.00	$93K
Saudi Arabia	5%		4¢	5¢	$20.00	$45K
Egypt	4%		3¢	6¢	$15.87	$7.6K
Azerbaijan	4%		4¢	5¢	$22.22	$192K
Turkey	4%		3¢	5¢	$21.28	$489K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Abraham Accords

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Supporter of Abraham Accords with Palestinian origins nominated to head up UNThe Jewish Chronicle · 4 days agoLana Nusseibeh is the daughter of a prominent UAE politician who was born in Jerusalem An advocate of the Abraham Accords with Palestinian origins has been nominated by the United Arab Emirates to be the new secretary-general of the UN…
Former Israeli PM emerges as wildcard in high-stakes election with Middle East's future at stakeFox News · 17 h agoA mid-air pilot stabbing causes a flight to Israel to nosedive before passengers intervene. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett joins Harris Faulkner to analyze the investigation. Witnesses recount the terrifying moment the…
Implications for the Gulf in the Israeli electionssemafor.com · 19 h ago“A Netanyahu defeat would be welcomed by most Gulf capitals,” according to Sanam Vakil. Gulf states are closely watching as Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, in the first national election since the Oct 7, 2023 terror attack A victory…
Trump Says ‘Norway Sucks’ After Missing Out on Nobel Peace PrizeNewsweek · 40 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 06:08 PM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 06:25 PM EDT President Donald Trump lashed out at Norway during a campaign rally in Michigan on Sunday, renewing his complaints about not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize and declaring that the…
UNITY GOVERNMENT: Trump Allies Reportedly Pushing Netanyahu To Form Coalition Without Ben-Gvir And Smotrich@YWN · 12 h agoFigures close to President Donald Trump are reportedly advocating for the formation of a broad Israeli unity government following Tuesday’s elections that would exclude National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister…
The Netanyahu Doctrine: How Israeli military primacy could reshape Saudi securityIsrael & Jewish News - JNS · 43 h agoSaudi Arabia’s military vulnerability and its efforts to protect its economic future leave it exposed to Tehran’s ballistic missiles, drones and terrorist proxies, including Yemen’s Houthis. Iran and its proxies have the capacity to…
Billionaire Trump backer says Ben-Gvir, Smotrich should not serve in next Israeli government@arabnews · 36 h agoJERUSALEM: Billionaire American investor Bill Ackman on Sunday said that Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich should not serve in Israel’s next government, saying the two far-right politicians had caused enormous damage to the country’s…
Pro-Israel Billionaire Warns Israeli Candidates Are Hurting US Support, Faces Backlashdailycaller · 13 h agoSome Israelis are attacking Jewish billionaire Bill Ackman for describing how prominent Israeli candidates for the Knesset are perceived by Americans ahead of the country’s Tuesday election. Ackman singled out Israel’s Minister of National…
Trump's Board of Peace hires Biden aide for Gaza outreachThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 12 h agoThe Board of Peace is continuing its efforts to build bipartisan support in Congress for both the board and US President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, seeking backing from Republicans and Democrats alike. As part of these efforts…
"Enormous Damage": Trump Backer Ackman urges Israel to Drop Ben-Gvir and SmotrichAl Bawaba · 38 h agoALBAWABA — Billionaire investor and Donald Trump supporter Bill Ackman called on Sunday for Israel’s next government to exclude far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, two days before the country’s election. Writing on X…
Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have done ‘enormous reputational damage’ to Israel, says billionaire Bill Ackman ahead of Knesset electionThe Jewish Chronicle · 20 h agoThe prominent investor and outspoken pro-Israel advocate has called for the two far-right leaders to be excluded from the next coalition government Billionaire American investor Bill Ackman has called for Israel’s national security and…
Trump sends Saudi nuclear deal to Congress but says Riyadh must recognize IsraelThe Standard 英文虎報 · 3 h agoPresident Donald Trump has sent Congress a proposed agreement with Saudi Arabia on civil nuclear energy while insisting the pact will only go into effect if the kingdom normalizes relations with Israel, a U.S. administration official told…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.8M

Today$893

This week$6.3K

At stake$138K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions