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Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
The odds
14%chance▼ 6
How the odds have moved
Yes: 8% on Oct 20, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 10 AM ET19% → 14%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 21, 8 PM ET6% → 26%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | ▼ 6 | 13¢ | 15¢ | $6.71 | $106K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Viktor Orbán
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UN BID: Trump Administration Pushes Viktor Orbán As Potential U.N. Secretary-General Candidate With U.S., Russian And Chinese SupportThe Trump administration is pushing former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to become the next United Nations Secretary-General, with Washington proposing him as a potential joint candidate backed by the United States, Russia, and… -
US encourages Viktor Orbán to run for UN secretary-general as joint US, Russia, and China pick - reportNone of the candidates has secured enough support in six rounds of informal Security Council straw polls, leaving an opening for late entrants. Lana Nusseibeh of the UAE entered the race last week The Trump administration has encouraged… -
Trump's UN gambit: Could Viktor Orban become secretary-general?According to The Wall Street Journal, which cited sources in three countries, the proposal originated in Washington, where US officials approached Orban and encouraged him to run. Based on earlier discussions with Moscow and Beijing… - Adam Zivo: The end of Viktor OrbánHungary's Sunday election poised to topple Putin’s Trojan horse in the EU Longstanding Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who turned his country into a pro-Russian kleptocracy, is widely expected to be toppled in this weekend’s…
- UN LEADERSHIP: Trump Administration Pushing Viktor Orbán To Become Next UN Secretary-General With Russia And China’s SupportAccording to the report, American officials believe both Moscow and Beijing would support Orbán’s candidacy, based on previous discussions between Washington and the two governments. The proposal would involve the three countries jointly…
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A new round begins in the war between PM Viktor Orbán and opposition-lead BudapestA number of opposition parties criticised supplemental measures to the government’s plan to shield the economy from epidemic fallout announced by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Saturday. Meanwhile, Fidesz says that Budapest Mayor Gergely… -
Serbia votes as students seek to unseat Aleksandar Vucic in snap electionBELGRADE — Serbia is voting on Sunday as a mass student protest movement seeks to unseat long-time populist leader Aleksandar Vucic in the biggest challenge to his rule for more than a decade. The snap parliamentary elections, called by… -
Hungarian PM:The Central Chief Prosecution Office of Investigation has taken György Matolcsy, former Governor of the Hungarian National Bank and a former minister in Viktor Orbán’s government, into custody.Hungarian PM:"The Central Chief Prosecution Office of Investigation has taken György Matolcsy, former Governor of the Hungarian National Bank and a former minister in Viktor Orbán’s government, into custody." CGTN - Péter Magyar to AP News: public funds, similiarities with Viktor Orbán, chasing corruptionHungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar has pledged to hold former officials accountable for alleged corruption under Viktor Orbán while maintaining Hungary’s strict immigration policies, in his first interview with a global news…
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From Budapest to New York: Trump eyes ousted Hungarian PM Orbán for UN chief, report saysOusted after 16 years, Viktor Orbán has shown interest in a US offer to run for UN chief as Trump seeks a conservative to confront the global order and overhaul the UN amid budget and political crises, the Wall Street Journal reports -
European leaders join Hungary’s 1956 revolution commemoration as Magyar resets EU tiesNumerous foreign guests, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, visited Hungary’s capital on Friday BUDAPEST, Hungary — Numerous foreign guests representing countries across Europe visited Hungary’s capital on Friday… -
Friday briefing: How a leaderless student group is challenging power in SerbiaIn today’s newsletter: Born from the fury surrounding the deadly Novi Sad station collapse, Serbia’s Student List has taken its protests all the way to the elections in an unprecedented grassroots campaign Good morning. As waves of…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions