Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $4.8K today · $318K traded · $33.8K at stake · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

24%1480+

1,4701,520

How the odds have moved

1480+: 30% on Oct 20, 24% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
1480+	24%	▼ 2	22¢	25¢	$4.03	$64.6K
1490+	24%	▼ 1	23¢	25¢	$3.95	$73.5K
1495+	24%		24¢	25¢	$4.00	$56K
1500+	22%	▲ 3	21¢	22¢	$4.55	$64.6K
1510+	17%	▲ 2	17¢	18¢	$5.59	$59K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Gemini, Google AI, Google Gemini Pro Model

Search ›

Comic Studio AI: Turning Voice & Text Prompts into 4-Panel Comics with Google AI Studio, Gemini & ImagenDEV Community · 2 days agoEducation Track: Build Apps with Google AI Studio As a Google Developer Expert (GDE) in AI & Cloud, one of the biggest bottlenecks I see when teaching developers and students about multimodal AI architectures is turning abstract technical…
How to Track Your Brand in Google AI Overviews Without a Paid APIDEV Community · 22 h agoGoogle AI Overviews now answer a large share of commercial questions before any website gets a click. Business owners ask me the same thing every week: are we even in those answers? The honest problem is tooling. Most AI visibility…
Google AI Summaries Squeeze The Websites That Depend On Search TrafficNortheast Times · 9 h agoGoogle's AI search features have made it harder for online publishers to survive on search traffic alone, The Verge reported Sunday in its Stepback newsletter, written by Emma Roth. The change affects any reader who finds news through…
Save up to $200 on Google Chromebooks — discover what's possible when you bring the power of Google AI to your ChromebookTom's Hardware · 26 h agoTom's Hardware Approved - Sponsored Offer Lighter on your backpack and wallet With a 0.78-inch profile and a 2.99-pound weight, the IdeaPad Slim 3 Chromebook is a portable device you can carry with you. The 14-inch IPS display with WUXGA…
Automate a boring task for $0 with the Google AI Studio free API tierDEV Community · 47 h agoGoogle AI Studio gives you a free Gemini API key with a generous free tier. No credit card. Here is the full path from zero to a working automation. No SDK needed. Plain curl works: gemini-2.5-flash-lite is the fastest model and has the…
How to check whether ChatGPT and Google AI Overviews name your local businessDEV Community · 2 days agoAI answers change. Ask an engine the same question twice and it can name different businesses. Engines also guess where you are from your connection when the question has no place in it. So use fixed questions with the place name in each…
I canceled Google AI Plus after the downgrade, but I’m still using GeminiAndroid Authority · 3 days agoOct 25, 2026 — 7:30 AM ET I’ve been a Gemini user for a couple of years now. I use it mainly for learning new skills and summarizing concepts. It’s well-integrated with whatever Android smartphone I use, giving me helpful features like…
Convertion F45 Server to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks based on BTRFS-XFS Setup ( Assisted by Google AI )lxer.com · 41 h agoConverting a server (such as a high-density virtualization platform) to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks solves the fundamental performance bottlenecks and management complexities inherent in running virtual machines on top of…
US Blacklists Sam Altman's Old Y Combinator China Pick Over Startup Built On Stolen Google AI SecretsZeroHedge · 3 days agoLatest: Can The Gulf Be Rebuilt? Of all the people who could end up on a US sanctions list for bankrolling stolen Google AI technology, a former Microsoft executive hand-picked by Sam Altman to run Y Combinator's China arm was probably not…
Concert Review: beabadoobee’s “The Powerlines Tour” electrifies the Kia Forum in arena debutDaily Bruin · 3 days agoThis post was updated Oct. 22 at 9:15 p.m. Beabadoobee transported fans to an American country road with pylons passing by, driving from her indie roots into a new, louder, rock-driven era. The artist’s first headline arena and…
Google AI Overview Citation Cards With AI-Generated Summary SnippetsSearch Engine Roundtable · 3 days agoGoogle seems to be testing or rolling out AI-generated summaries within AI Overviews citation cards. So the cards on the right (or bottom) of the AI Overviews within Google Search can now show AI summary snippets/descriptions. Google seems…
Google AI Initiative Teaser: The Deployment Questions Businesses Need AnsweredDEV Community · 3 days agoThe supplied material signals a possible Google AI initiative, but it does not identify a product, capability, release date, pricing model, access route or deployment option. That leaves the most important practical questions unanswered…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$318K

Today$4.8K

This week$24.2K

At stake$33.8K

In the news48 headlines today, 607 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company320.21−1.24%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions