Iran leader end of 2026?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $4.1K today · $40.5M traded · $805K at stake · prices read 29 min ago

The odds

86%Mojtaba Khamenei
  • Mojtaba Khamenei86%
  • No Head of State4%▼ 1
  • Reza Pahlavi2%
  • Alireza Arafi2%
  • Hassan Rouhani1%
  • Ahmad Vahidi1%
  • Abbas Araghchi<1%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf<1%
  • Masoud Pezeshkian<1%
  • Hassan Khomeini<1%
  • Muhammad Mirbaqiri<1%
  • Sadegh Larijani<1%
18 more
  • Maryam Rajavi<1%
  • Saeed Jalili<1%
  • Mahmoud Ahmadinejad<1%
  • Mohsen Araki<1%
  • Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani<1%
  • Ali Asghar Hejazi<1%
  • Hassan Shariatmadari<1%
  • Massoud Rajavi<1%
  • Seyed Hossein Mousavian<1%
  • Reza Pirzadeh<1%
  • Navid Shomali<1%
  • Mustafa Hijri<1%
  • Ali Motahari<1%
  • Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel<1%
  • Mostafa Pourmohammadi<1%
  • Sadegh Mahsouli<1%
  • Mohammad Khatami<1%
  • Nasir Hosseini<1%

How the odds have moved

Mojtaba Khamenei: 87% on Oct 20, 86% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Mojtaba Khamenei 86% 85¢ 86¢ $1.16 $6.9M
No Head of State 4% ▼ 1 4¢ 5¢ $20.83 $1.2M
Reza Pahlavi 2% 2¢ 2¢ $41.67 $713K
Alireza Arafi 2% 2¢ 3¢ $37.04 $2.3M
Hassan Rouhani 1% 1¢ 1¢ $954K
Ahmad Vahidi 1% 0¢ 1¢ $787K
Abbas Araghchi <1% 0¢ 0¢ $842K
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf <1% 0¢ 0¢ $929K
Masoud Pezeshkian <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1M
Hassan Khomeini <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1.5M
Muhammad Mirbaqiri <1% 0¢ 0¢ $478K
Sadegh Larijani <1% 0¢ 0¢ $591K
Maryam Rajavi <1% 0¢ 0¢ $907K
Saeed Jalili <1% 0¢ 0¢ $425K
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1.1M
Mohsen Araki <1% 0¢ 0¢ $326K
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani <1% 0¢ 0¢ $333K
Ali Asghar Hejazi <1% 0¢ 0¢ $394K
Hassan Shariatmadari <1% 0¢ $3.2M
Massoud Rajavi <1% 0¢ $437K
Seyed Hossein Mousavian <1% 0¢ $3.7M
Reza Pirzadeh <1% 0¢ $188K
Navid Shomali <1% 0¢ $26K
Mustafa Hijri <1% 0¢ $239K
Ali Motahari <1% 0¢ $86K
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel <1% 0¢ $443K
Mostafa Pourmohammadi <1% 0¢ $3.4M
Sadegh Mahsouli <1% 0¢ $276K
Mohammad Khatami <1% 0¢ $5.2M
Nasir Hosseini <1% 0¢ $301K
Mohammad Pakpour <1% 0¢
Ali Larijani <1% 0¢ $237K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Reza Pahlavi

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63%Gadi Eizenkot
  • Gadi Eizenkot63%▲ 6
  • Benjamin Netanyahu25%▼ 2
  • Naftali Bennett8%▼ 4
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  • Avigdor Lieberman1%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
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  • Ofer Winter<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions