Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
92%chance▲ 3
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10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
The odds
5.44%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.44%Middle half 4.33% – 7.46%
How the odds have moved
Median: 5.07% on Oct 2, 5.44% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2% or above | 85% | ▼ 7 | 37¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 1.9K |
| 2.25% or above | 84% | 81¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 4.4K | |
| 2.5% or above | 84% | 26¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 3.9K | |
| 2.75% or above | 84% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 3.8K | ||
| 3% or above | 84% | 51¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 3.6K | |
| 3.25% or above | 84% | 51¢ | $1.20 | 3.9K | ||
| 3.5% or above | 84% | 75¢ | $1.20 | 3.0K | ||
| 3.75% or above | 84% | 85¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 5.9K | |
| 4% or above | 84% | 86¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 4.5K | |
| 4.25% or above | 84% | 92¢ | $1.09 | 1.3K | ||
| 4.5% or above | 59% | 16¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 1.1K | |
| 4.75% or above | 59% | ▲ 1 | 32¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 2.5K |
| 5% or above | 59% | 70¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 3.3K | |
| 5.25% or above | 59% | 12¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 2.2K | |
| 5.5% or above | 48% | 5¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 1.8K | |
| 5.75% or above | 48% | 4¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 3.5K | |
| 6% or above | 48% | ▼ 35 | 11¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 2.7K |
| 6.25% or above | 48% | 99¢ | $1.01 | 2.5K | ||
| 6.5% or above | 48% | 11¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 2.7K | |
| 6.75% or above | 48% | $2.11 | 3.2K | |||
| 7% or above | 48% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 3.4K | ||
| 7.25% or above | 48% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 604 | ||
| 7.5% or above | 22% | 3¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 2.0K | |
| 7.75% or above | 19% | 2¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 1.5K | |
| 8% or above | 19% | 2¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 3.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Y US Treasury
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All indexes ›S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
$767.50median
$745$805
Median $767.50Middle half $766.25 – $768.75
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
$779.54high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $779.54 and as low as $754.87.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $78048%
- Falls to $76067%
- Falls to $75034%
Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
$774.67high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $774.67 and as low as $760.08.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $77547%
- Falls to $76580%
- Falls to $76050%
Already reached: ↑ $765
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
70%S&P 500
- S&P 50070%▲ 2
- Bitcoin18%
- Gold6%▼ 2
S&P 500 Futures Price (Oct 19, 2026)
30%Above 7,225
7,2008,075
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.