Next President of Germany?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Jan 30, 2027 · $1.6K today · $9.3K traded · $2K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

62%Ilse Aigner

Ilse Aigner62%▼ 1
Karin Prien9%▼ 11
Julia Klöckner8%▼ 1
Udo Di Fabio8%▲ 2
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer7%▲ 2
Angela Merkel2%
Boris Rhein2%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Ilse Aigner: 56% on Oct 20, 62% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 27, 6 AM ETIlse Aigner: 44% → 62%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Ilse Aigner	62%	▼ 1	59¢	64¢	$1.56	$4.1K
Karin Prien	9%	▼ 11	6¢	11¢	$9.09	$2.5K
Julia Klöckner	8%	▼ 1	5¢	11¢	$8.85	$847
Udo Di Fabio	8%	▲ 2	1¢	14¢	$6.90	$508
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer	7%	▲ 2	1¢	13¢	$7.81	$145
Angela Merkel	2%		1¢	4¢	$26.32	$517
Boris Rhein	2%	▼ 1	1¢	4¢	$24.39	$746

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: President of Germany, Ilse Aigner, Karin Prien

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Germany Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026The Rio Times · 2 days agoGermany is a democratic federal parliamentary republic where legislative power rests with the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, the body representing Germany’s regional states. The Federal Constitutional Court serves as the independent…
Merz calls for unity as he warns of threats facing Germanythefrontierpost.com · 3 days agoBERLIN (Reuters) : Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for unity in his struggling coalition on Saturday, saying Germany faced growing threats from political extremists and what he described as daily Russian efforts to destabilise the…
Merz to address Bavarian conservatives amid doubts over his governmentYahoo News · 4 days agoGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected at the Munich exhibition hall on Saturday to close the two-day party conference of the Bavarian conservatives. Expectations among delegates for the speech by the leader of the conservative bloc…
President of Germany Officially Welcomes the President of MongoliaMONTSAME News Agency · 7 days agoUlaanbaatar, October 20, 2026 /MONTSAME/. The President of the Federal Republic of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, officially welcomed the President of Mongolia, Khurelsukh Ukhnaa, who is paying a State Visit to the Federal Republic of…
ADIS International Roadshow 2026 in Munich advances UAE-Germany infrastructure cooperationZAWYA · 5 days agoThe Roadshow builds on the momentum of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s State Visit to Germany in September 2026, the first State Visit by a UAE President to Germany, which launched a Strategic Dialogue to further…
A Russian drone has attacked Chortkiv in Ternopil region again, injuring childrenМежа · 6 days agoThe attack damaged an outbuilding and caused a fire; two children were among those injured. Ternopil Regional Military Administration head Taras Pastukh said a Russian drone struck Chortkiv. According to him, 3 people were injured…
Iranian media: German ambassador summoned over spying rowGhana News Agency · 6 days agoTehran, Oct 20. (dpa/GNA) – Iran summoned German Ambassador Axel Dittmann on Monday, to protest what it described as the “contemptible approach” of certain German officials towards the country, Iranian state media reported. Foreign…
Authorities to Assess Numrug Fire Damage and Seek CompensationMONTSAME News Agency · 6 days agoDuring its regular session on October 21, 2026, the Government of Mongolia has directed relevant officials to determine the causes and circumstances of the wildfire in Numrug Strictly Protected Area in Khalkhgol soum, Dornod aimag, map its…
MEPs clash over framing of riots during emergency debateRTE.ie · 7 days agoFar-right and far-left MEPs have clashed over their contrasting framing of the riots in France, Italy and Belgium during a European Parliament emergency debate. France announced partial curfews in Paris and other cities yesterday after…
Germany summons Iranian ambassador over plot to attack Jewish leadersIsrael National News · 7 days agoGermany's Foreign Ministry summoned Iran's ambassador in Berlin on Monday following the conviction of two men involved in an Iranian-linked plot to target prominent Jewish figures in the country. The diplomatic move followed a ruling by…
Iran summons German ambassador in tit-for-tat move over accusations of assassination plots@arabnews · 8 days agoTEHRAN: Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday summoned Germany’s ambassador to Tehran, accusing Berlin of levelling “baseless political allegations” against the Islamic republic. The move to summon ambassador Axel Dittmann was in retaliation…
Iran Summons German Ambassador in Retaliatory Move Over Assassination Plot AllegationsKurdistan24 · 8 days agoERBIL (Kurdistan24) – Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Monday summoned Germany’s ambassador to Tehran, Axel Dittmann, accusing Berlin of making “baseless political allegations” against the Islamic Republic, in a retaliatory move after Germany…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJan 30, 2027 6:59 PM ET

Traded$9.3K

Today$1.6K

This week$3K

At stake$2K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Germany is currently scheduled to indirectly elect a new president on January 30, 2027. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of President of Germany by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as President of Germany. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such President takes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions