How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?
22.5median
1644
Median 22.5Middle half 20.7 – 26.0
Install
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?
The last odds before it closed
27.0median
1644
Median 27.0Middle half 26.0 – 28.0
How the odds have moved
Median: 23.2 on Oct 20, 27.0 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <20 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $4.4K | ||
| 20-24 | <1% | 0¢ | $4.9K | |||
| 25-29 | 99% | ▲ 1 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $11.6K | |
| 30-34 | <1% | 0¢ | $4.8K | |||
| 35-39 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $2.8K | ||
| 40+ | <1% | 1¢ | $5.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz
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International Maritime Organization Chief: Some 400 Ships Remain Stranded in Strait of Hormuz[Economy] : The head of the International Maritime Organization(IMO) says there are still some 400 ships inside the Strait of Hormuz, carrying around five-thousand seafarers. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez disclosed the figures… -
IRGC Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed as Tanker Transits Drop to 4A CENTCOM spokesperson told Al Jazeera on October 22 that US forces had cleared shipping lanes of mines, that Iran’s mine claims were incorrect, and that 95 percent of vessels were “getting through.” The spokesperson described the IRGC… -
US CENTCOM Commander Visits Strait of Hormuz as Oil Exports Top 1.5 Billion Barrels Since SummerThe commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) visited the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 25, as U.S. forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer. Adm. Brad Cooper… -
CENTCOM chief visits Strait of Hormuz amid ‘milestone’ of crude oil exportsAdm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 25, the U.S. military said on Sunday. The visit came as American forces “reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5… -
US forces support transit of 3,000 ships through Strait of Hormuz — CENTCOMAccording to the command, US forces reached the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since summer - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics &… -
CENTCOM chief declares: Strait of Hormuz is free from Iranian minesThe commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), Adm. Brad Cooper, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, as US forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer… -
Iran talks Middle East security, urges region to get US influence out | Live Updates from Fox News DigitalIran is working regional stability talks with U.S. allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, urging the region to remove foreign involvement, despite President Donald Trump's pressure to end Iran's nuclear aspirations and threats on the… -
Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold CongressPresident Donald Trump joins 'Sunday Morning Futures' to discuss the economy, midterm elections, Iran and more. Trump touts booming economy, control in Strait of Hormuz as GOP fights to hold Congress President Donald Trump joins 'Sunday… -
Maritime Crisis Deepens In Strait Of Hormuz As Nearly 500 Ships Stranded, Another Oil Tanker Attacked Near OmanFahad Shabbir (@FahadShabbir) Published October 26, 2026 | 12:33 AM Movement of 492 vessels near Fujairah, Dubai and Oman has been affected as an international maritime security body warns of a serious risk of further attacks in the Strait… - CENTCOM's Commander Conducts an Inspection Flight in Strait of HormuzBy The Maritime Executive 2026-10-25 16:33:41 In a demonstration of confidence in the control Central Command exercises over the Strait of Hormuz, Commander CENTCOM Admiral Brad Cooper has made a low-flying tour of the Strait of Hormuz in…
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CENTCOM Commander Visits Strait of Hormuz during Milestone WeekSTRAIT OF HORMUZ — The commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) visited the Strait of Hormuz, Oct. 25, as U.S. forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer… -
Oil eases on Middle East diplomacy hopes, Saudi attacks keep supply worries aliveOil prices edged lower on Tuesday as the potential for a resolution in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran kept supply fears at bay, but Brent stayed close to six-month highs as attacks on Saudi Arabia lowered hopes of immediate stability in the…
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