Muse Charm released by...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $4.8K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 52 min ago

The odds

72%December 15

December 1572%
December 3182%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

December 15: 56% on Oct 20, 72% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 8 PM ETDecember 15: 54% → 78%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
December 15	72%		70¢	74¢	$1.35	$2.4K
December 31	82%	▲ 1	75¢	89¢	$1.12	$2.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Muse Charm

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Meta Isn't Giving Up On Dedicated AI Hardware, ApparentlyYahoo Tech · 2 days agoYahoo Tech Get a first look at Meta's latest gadget, the 'Muse Charm' AI keychain. Mark Zuckerberg explains how this compact device will offer the fastest way to talk to your AI, with a planned release later this year.
Is the Muse Charm a Cute AI Friend or a Data Trap?Yahoo Tech · 6 days agoYahoo Tech We break down the latest from Meta, the Muse Charm. With its Tamagotchi-like appeal, could this be the next big thing for kids, or does it pose a significant data privacy risk? Join the discussion.
Meta beats expectations but legal penalties hit profit amid AI raceFrance 24 · 3 days agoSan Francisco (United States) (AFP) – Meta beat investor expectations for third-quarter revenue on Wednesday as it doubles down on a global AI race but the social media giant's profits took a hit due to an $18 billion legal settlement with…
From HomeView to Muse: all the US technology that isn’t making its way to EuropeIl Sole 24 ORE · 4 days agoApple’s announcement of its new home automation display HomeView has sparked enthusiasm but also raised concerns about developments in the European technology market. The device will not be launched in the single market, but this is not an…
Meta's AI spending, Muse assistant adoption in focus for quarterly resultsThe Lufkin Daily News · 5 days agoMeta CEO Mark Zuckerberg presents the Muse Charm during the Meta Connect event at the company's headquarters in Menlo Park, California, U.S., September 23, 2026. REUTERS/Carlos Barria Oct 20 (Reuters) - Meta's massive artificial…
Go Go Gold Win Casino Launches Nugget Charm AI Casino Advisornext.io · 5 days agoBy James Leeland - Published on 20 Oct, 2026 Go Go Gold Win has found a way to put its gold coin mascot right in the middle of one of tech’s biggest moments this fall. At the end of September, the sweepstakes casino introduced “Nugget…
Why Meta's Q3 earnings could be a little hard to interpretYahoo Finance · 5 days agoMeta (META) is reporting third quarter earnings results on Wednesday after the closing bell. Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi outlines what investors should expect. This is a very hard, uh, I think Meta earnings report to to…
Meta launches Muse Spark Open model for coding and AI agentsTechnobaboy · 7 days agoMeta has launched Muse Spark Open, its most capable U.S. open-weight AI model so far. The new model is built for coding, software development, AI agents, and tasks that require long-context reasoning. Muse Spark Open is a native multimodal…
Amazon Unveils Two Bee-Branded Hardware Devices Powered by AITIKR.com · 8 days ago@AndreyPopov from Getty Images via Canva, @VichienPetchmai from Getty Images via Canva Amazon (AMZN) unveiled two new AI devices on Thursday under the Bee brand it bought last year. Both are built to listen throughout the day and offer…
What kind of life benefits would you need to trust wearing an AI microphone from Amazon on your wrist? I found someSocial Signals by GREG SWAN · 9 days agoThis issue of Social Signals was written to the new album from The Avalanches, No Bad Memories. Yes, I’m ordering it on vinyl, too. This week I was in Columbus, OH, where I learned that the name columbus comes from the Latin word for male…
Meta Has Dropped After 3 of Its Last 4 Reports. Will Muse Change That? Trade It With METU and METDBarchart.com · 8 days agoThis is sponsored content. Barchart is not endorsing the websites or products set forth below. Meta Platforms (META) reports third-quarter earnings on October 21 after a string of major and upcoming releases, including the Muse AI agent in…
Amazon launches new Bee 'personal AI' devices that listen to conversationsCNBC · 10 days agoAmazon on Thursday unveiled two new Bee listening devices, including a wearable and a credit card-sized voice recorder, marking its latest push into the AI gadget market. The Bee Frontier is an upgraded version of Amazon's existing…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$4.8K

This week$4.8K

At stake$1.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta officially releases the Muse Charm by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Muse Charm" refers to the device unveiled by Meta on September 23, 2026, including its final commercial version under any name or branding. Any name change or rebranding of the Muse Charm will have no bearing on this market's resolution. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public in the United States and shipments to public customers or availability for customer pickup must have begun by the specified deadline. Availability in selected US locations or in limited quantities w

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.