Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Dec 31 · $63 today · $125K traded · $44.9K at stake · prices read 31 min ago

The odds

4%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 4% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	4%		4¢	4¢	$25.64	$125K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky

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Putin’s War on Abortion Meets His War in UkraineNewsweek · 3 h agoOct 27, 2026 at 08:58 AM EDT President Vladimir Putin is desperate for Russian women to have more babies. Though abortion remains legal nationally, Russian authorities have waged war against it, banning "child-free" advocacy, pressuring…
Zelensky Adviser Slams Musk Over Claims Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsNewsweek · 26 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 09:20 AM EDT A top Ukrainian official has hit back at claims from SpaceX chief Elon Musk that Kyiv's military used the commercial Starlink satellite network for offensive drone strikes against Russian forces. Ukraine said…
Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionNewsweek · 45 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country…
Russia, Ukraine begin Oleshky ceasefire but keep up strikes elsewhereNew York Post · 12 h agoRussia and Ukraine have begun a regional ceasefire to allow the start of a humanitarian effort in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, both sides said on Tuesday, ‌but they continue strikes elsewhere, including the Ukrainian capital of…
Ceasefire negotiated by Melania Trump holds in Russia-occupied Ukrainian cityFox News · 7 h agoMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss first lady Melania Trump's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Beckman details how the first lady successfully brokered a ceasefire in Oleshky, allowing…
Map shows Ukraine's battlefield advances threatening key Russian supply linesNewsweek · 23 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 12:54 PM EDT Ukrainian forces are making slow battlefield gains that might threaten Russia's ability to supply its troops, it has been reported, as a map shows the state of part of the front line. One Ukrainian military…
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineNewsweek · 48 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S…
Ceasefire begins in Russian-occupied Ukrainian town as strikes on Kyiv continueCBS News · 4 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Ceasefire in…
Sister of Ukrainian woman who died in recent Russian attack speaks outCBS News · 6 h agoYulia Spichak was one of five people who died in a Russian drone strike on a park in Ukraine's eastern Kharkiv region last week after Elon Musk limited the country's Starlink network access. Her sister Alina spoke with Aidan Stretch about…
Local Russia-Ukraine truce brokered by Melania Trump takes effect amid strikesCNBC · 9 h agoA local Russia-Ukraine ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump has taken effect in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, even as overnight strikes continued elsewhere, including Kyiv. Local Russia-Ukraine truce brokered by Melania Trump takes…
Melania Trump-brokered local ceasefire begins as Russia continues attacks on UkraineCNBC · 10 h agoAs a ceasefire brokered by First Lady Melania Trump took effect in a city in southern Ukraine, Russia continued pounding Ukraine's cities overnight. The local ceasefire, due to last until Saturday in Russia-occupied Oleshky near the…
Melania Trump-brokered one-city ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine takes effectCNN · 15 h agoA localized ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the occupied city of Oleshky that First Lady Melania Trump helped to broker has now gone into effect, officials on both sides said Tuesday. Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s parliament…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$125K

Today$63

This week$2.6K

At stake$44.9K

In the news695 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. An epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired it

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions