Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

Polymarket World › Russia & Ukraine Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $199K today · $899K traded · $168K at stake · prices read 7 min ago

The odds

Oct 19, 2026even chance by
  • October 17<1%▼ 4
  • October 2096%▲ 9
  • October 2196%▲ 13
  • October 2296%▲ 7
  • October 2396%▲ 14
  • October 2496%▲ 16
  • October 2596%▲ 14
  • October 2696%▲ 8
  • October 2796%▲ 8
  • October 2896%▼ 7
  • October 2996%▲ 5
  • October 3096%
1 more
  • October 3196%▲ 2

How the odds have moved

October 20: 81% on Oct 20, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 20, 11 PM ETOctober 20: 81% → 88%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
✓ October 1 >99% ▲ 48 100¢ 100¢ $550
✓ October 2 >99% ▲ 49 100¢ 100¢ $749
✓ October 3 >99% 100¢ 100¢ $4.4K
✓ October 4 >99% ▲ 9 100¢ 100¢ $74.5K
✓ October 5 >99% ▲ 6 99¢ 100¢ $8.6K
✓ October 6 >99% ▲ 6 100¢ 100¢ $7.2K
✓ October 7 >99% ▲ 12 100¢ 100¢ $5.3K
✓ October 8 >99% ▲ 11 100¢ 100¢ $3.7K
✓ October 9 >99% ▲ 2 93¢ 100¢ $7.3K
✓ October 10 >99% ▲ 5 100¢ 100¢ $2.6K
✓ October 11 >99% ▲ 7 100¢ 100¢ $2K
✓ October 12 >99% ▲ 5 100¢ 100¢ $75.9K
✓ October 13 >99% ▲ 9 100¢ 100¢ $7.4K
✓ October 14 >99% ▲ 5 100¢ 100¢ $74.4K
✓ October 15 >99% ▲ 4 100¢ 100¢ $58.7K
✓ October 16 >99% ▲ 5 98¢ 98¢ $1.02 $12K
October 17 <1% ▼ 4 0¢ $159K
✓ October 18 >99% ▲ 15 100¢ 100¢ $43.4K
✓ October 19 >99% ▲ 12 100¢ 100¢ $29.9K
October 20 96% ▲ 9 100¢ 100¢ $32.4K
October 21 96% ▲ 13 100¢ 100¢ $38.2K
October 22 96% ▲ 7 100¢ 100¢ $25.3K
October 23 96% ▲ 14 91¢ 98¢ $1.02 $21.6K
October 24 96% ▲ 16 100¢ 100¢ $20.3K
October 25 96% ▲ 14 100¢ 100¢ $24.2K
October 26 96% ▲ 8 100¢ 100¢ $28.2K
October 27 96% ▲ 8 100¢ 100¢ $4.8K
October 28 96% ▼ 7 88¢ 90¢ $1.11 $1.8K
October 29 96% ▲ 5 84¢ 88¢ $1.14 $14.4K
October 30 96% 83¢ 94¢ $1.06 $651
October 31 96% ▲ 2 85¢ 96¢ $1.04 $1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky

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Dec 31, 2027even chance by
  • January 31, 202724%▼ 1
  • February 28, 202728%▼ 2
  • March 31, 202735%
12 more
  • April 30, 202741%▼ 1
  • May 31, 202744%▲ 1
  • June 30, 202744%
  • July 31, 202744%▲ 1
  • August 31, 202744%▼ 1
  • September 30, 202744%▼ 1
  • October 3144%▼ 1
  • October 31, 202744%
  • November 30, 202744%▲ 1
  • November 3044%▼ 1
  • December 3144%▲ 1
  • December 31, 202772%▲ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions