Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%
- November 30>99%▲ 11
- December 31>99%▲ 7
Install
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
The odds
62%Ursula von der Leyen
- Ursula von der Leyen62%
- Mark Rutte52%▲ 2
- António Guterres17%▲ 2
- Emmanuel Macron11%▲ 1
- Mark Carney9%▼ 1
- JD Vance6%
- Donald Trump4%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Ursula von der Leyen: 67% on Oct 20, 62% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 8 PM ETUrsula von der Leyen: 67% → 72%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ António Costa | >99% | ▲ 3 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $38.6K | |
| ✓ Donald Tusk | >99% | ▲ 42 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $17.1K | |
| ✓ Maia Sandu | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $7.7K | |
| ✓ Steve Witkoff | >99% | ▲ 4 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $23.5K | |
| ✓ Jared Kushner | >99% | ▲ 5 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $31.5K | |
| ✓ Keith Kellogg | >99% | ▲ 1 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $27.4K | |
| ✓ Friedrich Merz | >99% | ▲ 29 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $85.2K | |
| ✓ Andy Burnham | >99% | ▲ 5 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $17.3K | |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 62% | 55¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | $13.1K | |
| Mark Rutte | 52% | ▲ 2 | 51¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | $76.3K |
| António Guterres | 17% | ▲ 2 | 15¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | $9.9K |
| Emmanuel Macron | 11% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $12.3K |
| Mark Carney | 9% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $15K |
| JD Vance | 6% | 4¢ | 7¢ | $15.15 | $148K | |
| Donald Trump | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $11K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
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Zelensky Adviser Slams Musk Over Claims Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsOct 26, 2026 at 09:20 AM EDT A top Ukrainian official has hit back at claims from SpaceX chief Elon Musk that Kyiv's military used the commercial Starlink satellite network for offensive drone strikes against Russian forces. Ukraine said… -
Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country… -
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S… -
Russia says it will open humanitarian corridor to Ukrainian townRussia says it will open a humanitarian corridor to the occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky, where people have been eating weeds and pickles to survive while trapped by minefields, shelling and drones. Russia says it will open humanitarian… -
Map shows Ukraine's battlefield advances threatening key Russian supply linesOct 26, 2026 at 12:54 PM EDT Ukrainian forces are making slow battlefield gains that might threaten Russia's ability to supply its troops, it has been reported, as a map shows the state of part of the front line. One Ukrainian military… -
Ukrainian President Zelensky confirms access to Starshield has been restoredAfter a week of slow Starlink speeds hindering Ukrainian military operations, the Ukrainian defense ministry announced on Saturday that full access to the military grade internet service has been restored. Voter turnout is already high in… -
Russia given first championships since Ukraine invasionWeightlifting was first included as an Olympic sport in the 1896 Games in Athens Moscow will host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships - the first time an Olympic federation has chosen to stage a global event in Russia since the… - Zelensky Rules Out Land Swap With Russia, Says Lifting Sanctions Before Putin Talks Would Weaken UkraineSanctions relief before talks would weaken Ukraine's hand Zelensky opposed lifting sanctions on Russia ahead of a possible trilateral meeting involving the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and the United States. He said the sanctions were…
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UN panel: Russia is committing crimes against humanity by targeting civilians in UkraineRussia is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity by intentionally attacking civilian infrastructure – including vital energy systems – in Ukraine, an independent UN investigations panel said on Monday. Russian forces have been… -
Ukraine war briefing: Trilateral peace talks with Russia to restart, says ZelenskyyUkraine will not discuss limits to its armed forces or enforced neutrality at November meeting, president says. What we know on day 1,706A trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow will take place in November aiming to restart… -
Ukraine War: Zelensky Says US, Russia Agree To Trilateral Talks In NovemberUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine, Russia and the United States have agreed to hold trilateral talks in November, with Abu Dhabi among the possible venues under discussion. Speaking in Kyiv on October 25, Zelensky said… -
Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire dealAl Jazeera Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire deal US President Donald Trump praised First Lady Melania Trump, saying she was ‘better than our professionals’ following her diplomatic efforts towards a localised…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions