ISM Services PMI - October 2026

Polymarket Economy Closes Nov 4 · $1.8K today · $17.1K traded · $2.1K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

53.6median

50.159.9

Median 53.6Middle half 52.8 – 54.6

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
<51.0	2%		0¢	3¢	$32.26	$351
51.0 to 51.9	2%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	$613
52.0 to 52.9	23%	▲ 14	22¢	25¢	$4.05	$2.5K
53.0 to 53.9	36%	▲ 1	34¢	37¢	$2.70	$4.5K
54.0 to 54.9	19%	▲ 2	19¢	20¢	$5.08	$2.6K
55.0 to 55.9	4%	▼ 2	0¢	7¢	$14.93	$2.2K
56.0 to 56.9	6%	▼ 3	1¢	12¢	$8.40	$702
57.0 to 57.9	4%	▼ 4	3¢	6¢	$16.67	$1.7K
58.0 to 58.9	1%		0¢	1¢	$83.33	$599
59.0+	3%		0¢	6¢	$17.54	$1.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: ISM Services PMI

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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%

10 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
3 (75 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 4, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Traded$17.1K

Today$1.8K

This week$17.1K

At stake$2.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 4, 2026,

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.