Brazil Presidential Election
76%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro76%▼ 3
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva24%▲ 2
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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout
The odds
78.84%median
74%84%
Median 78.84%Middle half 77.86% – 79.73%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <76% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | $2.2K |
| 76-78% | 24% | ▲ 7 | 24¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | $9.3K |
| 78-80% | 56% | ▲ 1 | 57¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | $8.6K |
| 80-82% | 15% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | $2.7K |
| 82%+ | 2% | ▼ 4 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | $1.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Brazil Presidential Election Second
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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
45%Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%45%▲ 7
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%24%▼ 7
- Lula da Silva <4%20%▲ 1
5 more
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.