Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by October 31?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $865 today · $10.2K traded · $5.6K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

$1.47Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $1.47T.

Reaches $1.4T>99%
Reaches $1.43T>99%
Reaches $1.48T42%
Reaches $1.53T38%
Reaches $1.73T6%
Reaches $1.98T1%

Falls to $1.3T7%
Falls to $1.2T3%
Falls to $1.1T1%

How the odds have moved

Falls to $1.3T: 5% on Oct 20, 7% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
↑$1.4T	>99%	▲ 9	100¢	100¢		$1.7K
↑$1.425T	>99%	▲ 21	100¢	100¢		$1.1K
↑$1.475T	42%	▼ 25	5¢	79¢	$1.27	$707
↑$1.525T	38%	▼ 1	3¢	72¢	$1.39	$764
↑$1.725T	6%		1¢	11¢	$9.09	$453
↑$1.975T	1%		0¢	1¢	$83.33	$1.4K
↓$1.1T	1%		0¢	2¢	$50.00	$576
↓$1.2T	3%		0¢	6¢	$15.63	$1.8K
↓$1.3T	7%		5¢	8¢	$12.35	$1.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude

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Anthropic’s Claude AI model accessed Georgia voter data in USthe Guardian · 11 h agoAnthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis songs to train AI models Anthropic’s Claude model accessed voter data in the US state of Georgia, the AI company has confirmed, in the latest example of unauthorised behaviour by the technology…
Claude AI accessed publicly available Georgia voter data, Anthropic confirmsFox Business · 22 h agoAnthropic's Claude AI model accessed publicly available voter data through Georgia's data hub, state officials and the company confirmed to FOX Business on Sunday. The Georgia Secretary of State's office stressed that the bot did not…
Anthropic’s Claude AI Hacks into Georgia Voter DataBreitbart · 4 h agoAxios reports that Anthropic says Claude reached publicly available data that’s normally accessible only after a fee is paid, pulling aggregate vote counts for an internal Anthropic statistics project. The AI found a loophole in an old…
Anthropic’s Claude AI Model Accessed US Voter Data@securitymag · 5 h ago“Claude did not access the state’s voter registration system, change any voting records, or pull any individual voter records,” Anthropic states. The AI instead accessed aggregate vote counts through a loophole in an older version of the…
Anthropic Relies On Claude To Build Claude. That’s An Advantage And A Risk.Forbes · 5 h agoMore than 90 percent of Anthropic’s code was written by its own AI tool Claude in September, the company disclosed in its S-1 filing on Monday. The AI giant is increasingly using its own AI models to research, design and develop subsequent…
Tech stocks rise as Anthropic advances towards IPObbc.com · 6 h agoAI developer Anthropic has publicly filed a registration statement in its latest step towards a stock market offering, which experts believe could be at least part of why tech stocks are surging as US markets open this week. Watch adaptive…
The Anthropic IPO Is Also a Doomsday PrimerWIRED · 6 h ago“Sufficiently advanced AI systems could, if not developed, deployed, and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight and security measures, pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,” the prospectus reads, citing concerns both…
Anthropic bans scientists after detecting covert bioweapon research on ClaudeUNILAD Tech · 10 h agoThey attempted to create a new version of a dangerous virus Anthropic has just revealed a number of case studies where they detected concerning uses of Claude, and one involved a group of international scientists that were seemingly using…
Claude Duet is here: Anthropic's 24/7 AI agent, testedYahoo Finance · 11 h agoAnthropic just launched Claude Duet, a 24/7 personal agent that works on its own computer in the cloud and comes to you with what needs your attention. Host Ejaaz Ahamadeen tests it for 48 hours, compares it to Meta Muse, OpenAI Dots and…
Claude Code’s top enterprise users outspend other Claude users 20 to 1, Anthropic’s IPO filing saysThe New Stack · 7 h agoBlueconic sets this cookie as a unique identifier for the BlueConic profile. YouTube sets this cookie to manage feature rollout and experimentation. It helps Google control which new features or interface changes are shown to users as part…
Anthropic’s S-1 shows how Claude is built to keep enterprise customersCrypto Briefing · 5 h agoThe AI lab's IPO filing counts more than 11,900 customers spending at least $100,000 a year and lays out an ecosystem strategy borrowed from Amazon and Uber Anthropic has filed its S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, formally…
Anthropic's blockbuster share listing - 5 surprising detailsBBC News · 5 h agoAnthropic CEO Dario Amodei has become a key figure in the current AI era. Artificial intelligence (AI) firm Anthropic just released the required paperwork ahead of its long-anticipated debut on the US stock market. The 335-page document…

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Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.25Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.25T.

Reaches $1.5T96%
Reaches $1.75T82%

Falls to $800B3%
Falls to $700B3%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

85%Google

Google85%▲ 1
Anthropic9%▼ 4
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 13, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1

2 more

October 3138%▼ 2
December 3196%▲ 2

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

61%No release by October 31

No release by October 3161%▼ 2
October 2724%▲ 6
October 295%▼ 3

11 more

October 285%▲ 1
October 302%▼ 2
October 201%▼ 12
October 311%▲ 1
October 26<1%▼ 4
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1

Tech › AI

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1,410median

1,3801,480

Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415

Tech › AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

52%Anthropic

Anthropic52%▼ 1
Google36%▼ 1
OpenAI6%

12 more

xAI2%▲ 1
Meta2%
Alibaba1%
Moonshot1%
Z.ai<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onfe.secondmarket.com

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$10.2K

Today$865

This week$447

At stake$5.6K

In the news427 headlines today, 1,910 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions