OpenAI resumes training by...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Oct 31 · $5K today · $36.1K traded · $2.7K at stake · prices read 2 days ago

The odds

>99%October 31

October 31>99%▲ 84

How the odds have moved

October 31: 39% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 23, 5 PM ETOctober 31: 17% → >99%
- OpenAI Adds Locked Chats to Hide Sensitive Conversations in ChatGPT@techbuildafrica · 4 days ago
- Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues ChatGPT-maker OpenAIThe Texas Tribune · 2 days ago
- Texas AG Ken Paxton sues OpenAI over ChatGPT safety claimsHouston Chronicle · 2 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
September 30	<1%	▼ 10		0¢		$780
October 5	<1%	▼ 1		2¢	$58.82	$3.6K
October 10	<1%	▼ 7		0¢		$3.5K
October 15	<1%	▼ 3		1¢		$9.5K
October 31	>99%	▲ 84	99¢	100¢		$18.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT

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Paxton Sues OpenAI and Sam Altman, Seeks to Block Minors From ChatGPT@cdnnow · 13 h agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, accusing the ChatGPT maker of marketing its chatbot as safe while failing to protect Texans, including children. The lawsuit, filed Friday in Collin County district…
Human vs. ChatGPT NFL Week 7 betting picks: Human clings to profit as AI claims third straight winOutKick · 14 h agoColin Cowherd predicts the best bets entering Week 7 of the NFL season, including the Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, and Kansas City Chiefs. Apparently, the robot doesn't even have to make money to beat me anymore. ChatGPT finished…
Chatbot AI Service Comparison: OpenAI ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini (for CRM Actions)DEV Community · 29 h agoShort answer: Choose OpenAI ChatGPT for dynamic casual dialogue, Claude for explainable complex reasoning, and Gemini when minimal-response latency dominates; keep all three behind one CRM action contract. The boundary is simple: the model…
What is OpenAI 'dots'? A Thorough Explanation of 5 Differences from ChatGPT and How to Get Started [2026 Edition]note（ノート） · 25 h agoFrom the 'era of asking AI questions' to the 'era of delegating work to AI'. A service that makes you feel such a change has been released by OpenAI. Its name is 'dots'. It is a new AI agent announced on September 29, 2026. ChatGPT until…
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 30 h agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
How to make games in Codex: the Codex CLI, the ChatGPT app, or your ChatGPT plan inside FlockbayDEV Community · 13 h agoCodex is careful by design. It plans, works inside a sandbox, and asks before it does anything it is unsure of. Ask it for a coin that spins and disappears when the player touches it, and you get a clean script and a tidy explanation. What…
ChatGPT's Chrome Extension Just Became a Browser AgentDEV Community · 11 h agoOn 15 October 2026, OpenAI upgraded the ChatGPT extension for Chrome from a helpful sidebar into something much more interesting: a browser agent. It can now read across your open tabs — and, in its new Work mode, act inside the browser on…
ChatGPT Is Building Detailed Psychological Profiles of Its UsersDNYUZ · 10 h agoA recent study, conducted by a coalition of scientists in Germany, India and the Netherlands and presented at the ACM Web Conference 2026, investigated the ways that OpenAI’s ChatGPT has tracked and made sense of user inputs to develop…
Sam Altman says he cannot stop ChatGPT from aiding cybersecurity workCrypto Briefing · 10 h agoThe OpenAI chief argues that patching bugs is no longer enough as AI models find flaws faster than humans can fix them OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says he cannot stop ChatGPT from assisting with cybersecurity issues. The admission matters…
ChatGPT vs MagicSchool for Lesson Planning: Which Is Better?educatorstechnology.com · 11 h agoBy Med Kharbach, PhD | Last Update: October 25, 2026 ChatGPT and MagicSchool can both help teachers draft lesson plans, develop activities, and revise instructional materials. The main difference is how you begin. ChatGPT gives you an open…
Cheap Embeddings and Rerank Alternatives: OpenAI, Cohere, Voyage Semantic SearchDEV Community · 6 h agoThe practical choice is a two-stage pipeline with a migration ledger: compare OpenAI, Cohere, and Voyage on the same call transcripts, then decide whether a unified REST runtime reduces enough operational friction to justify another…
NotebookLM vs ChatGPT for Studying: Which Should Students Use?educatorstechnology.com · 11 h agoBy Med Kharbach, PhD | Last Update: October 25, 2026 NotebookLM and ChatGPT can both help students review material, clarify concepts, and prepare for exams. My recommendation is to start with NotebookLM when studying a particular…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$36.1K

Today$5K

This week$36.1K

At stake$2.7K

In the news134 headlines today, 1,834 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Resuming training means resuming, in part or in full, training suspended under the pause announced on September 25, 2026, including beginning a fresh training run in place of a suspended run. A qualifying annou

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions