Predictions › Elections › Around the world 95% No election before 2027
No election before 2027 95% Justice and Welfare (UCID) 3% Waddani 3% Kulmiye <1%
No election before 2027: 96% on Oct 20, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Somaliland Parliamentary Search › No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Student List – Students Win >99% ▲ 73 Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia <1% ▼ 74 Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! <1% 7 more Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) <1% Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor <1% Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification <1% Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić <1% Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović <1% European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš <1% SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak <1% Lula da Silva <4% >99% ▲ 82 Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ <1% ▼ 1 Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% <1% ▼ 5 5 more Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% <1% ▼ 36 Flávio Bolsonaro <4% <1% ▼ 38 Lula da Silva 4-8% <1% ▼ 1 Lula da Silva 8-12% <1% Lula da Silva 12%+ <1% Yashar 70% ▼ 2 Likud 29% ▲ 2 Together <1% 3 more Shas <1% The Democrats <1% Otzma Yehudit <1% Marine Le Pen 44% ▲ 1 Édouard Philippe 18% ▲ 2 David Lisnard 14% 42 more Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10% François Hollande 3% Raphaël Glucksmann 3% ▼ 1 Bruno Retailleau 1% Éric Zemmour 1% Jordan Bardella 1% Gabriel Attal 1% Dominique de Villepin 1% Sarah Knafo 1% Christine Lagarde <1% Xavier Bertrand <1% Sébastien Lecornu <1% Marion Maréchal <1% François Ruffin <1% Ségolène Royal <1% François Asselineau <1% Jean Castex <1% Natacha Polony <1% Laurent Wauquiez <1% Marine Tondelier <1% Fabien Roussel <1% Olivier Faure <1% Clémentine Autain <1% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% Michel Barnier <1% Valérie Pécresse <1% François Bayrou <1% Élisabeth Borne <1% Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% Gérald Darmanin <1% Carole Delga <1% Bernard Cazeneuve <1% Manuel Bompard <1% Mathilde Panot <1% Juan Branco <1% Clémence Guetté <1% Karim Bouamrane <1% Lucie Castets <1% Yannick Jadot <1% François Baroin <1% Anasse Kazib <1% Sylvain Durif <1%
16 39
Median 21.7 Middle half 19.3 – 23.9
Iliana Iotova 71% ▲ 2 Аndrey Gyurov 28% ▼ 3 Nikolai Denkov <1% 11 more Blagomir Kotsev <1% Rosen Zhelyazkov <1% Kostadin Kostadinov <1% Natalia Kiselova <1% Yanaki Stoilov <1% Krum Zarkov <1% Atanas Atanasov <1% Boyko Borissov <1% Delyan Peevski <1% Vassil Terziev <1% Rosen Plevneliev <1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Trading closes Mar 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET
Traded $115K
This week $156
At stake $6.6K
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie betwee
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions
