Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $782 today · $26.7K traded · $3.2K at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

1,494median

1,4701,520

Median 1,494

How the odds have moved

Median: 1,502 on Oct 20, 1,494 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
1480+	69%	▲ 7	61¢	77¢	$1.30	$9.5K
1490+	55%	▲ 4	40¢	70¢	$1.43	$5.2K
1500+	43%	▲ 4	40¢	46¢	$2.17	$7.5K
1510+	17%		12¢	22¢	$4.55	$4.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Text Arena Debut, Muse Spark

Search ›

Muse Spark Open: Meta's 816B Open-Weight Model, ExplainedDEV Community · 3 days agoMeta just did something it hasn't done in over two years: it released the weights of a frontier-class model. Muse Spark Open, launched October 15, 2026 by Meta Superintelligence Labs, is an 816-billion-parameter mixture-of-experts model —…
Muse Spark Open: Meta's 816B Open-Weight Giant ExplainedNeurAITool · 3 days agoMeta calls it "the most capable US open-weight model to date." Take that as Meta's marketing, with a grain of truth: several Chinese open-weight models still score higher on independent benchmarks. The model is built for coding and agentic…
Why a model scoring 43% on DeepSWE beats one scoring 60%: reading the DeepSeek 1017, Muse Spark 816B, and Beam 501B benchmarksregolo.ai · 3 days agoWhy does Reflection Beam 501B score 43.3% on DeepSWE v1.1 yet 81.6% on SWE-bench Verified at 327 tok/s and $0.23/task? We compare DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017, Meta Muse Spark 816B, Beam 501B, and GLM-5.3 across model cards and Artificial…
Muse Spark Open Benchmark: Open-Weight Models as Coding AgentsDEV Community · 4 days agoThese numbers are from the live boards as I read them on 20 October; the board itself is the current word. A pilot is a run we kept off the board, and the table says why. On Forge 2.0, 0.0617 is what the unchanged starter app scores, so a…
Muse Spark Open benchmark: where the open-weight models we ran this month broke as coding agentsLeanZero · 4 days agoTwo people in Romania doing Atlassian migrations, Forge apps and practical AI work for teams that would rather talk to the person doing the job. Most of what we learn ends up on this site. These numbers are from the live boards as I read…
Muse Spark Open Mac Guide: Can Your Mac Run Meta’s Model?iTechify · 5 days agoMeta has released Muse Spark Open, an open-weight AI model built with Apple’s help to run locally on Apple silicon. The Muse Spark Open Mac story sounds like good news for anyone with a MacBook. It isn’t, at least not yet. The full model…
Can two Mac Studios really run an 816B model? A bandwidth roofline check on Muse Spark OpenDEV Community · 3 days agoI checked those numbers against two quantities that are easy to compute from public files: the bytes read per token and the memory bandwidth of the machine. Three findings: Everything below is arithmetic on public files plus Apple's…
Run Muse Spark Open Locally: 816B Model, 13 Steps [2026]Tech Insider · 5 days agoCheck actual free space, not just drive capacity. On macOS, run df -h in Terminal and confirm you have free space well beyond the quant size you’re planning to download, since the download, the extracted weights and any temporary…
Meta expands its AI offering with open weight model Muse Spark OpenTechCentral.ie · 5 days agoMeta has introduced a new AI model with open weights, Muse Spark Open. The model is specifically designed for agentic workflows and programming. This follows the recent launch of Muse Wonder, a more advanced system that Meta wants to keep…
Can Mac mini Run Muse Spark Open? Mac Studio RAM Requirements ExplainedZEERA WIRELESS · 6 days agoVerwenden Sie beim Bezahlen den Code „PRO“, um heute 10 % Rabatt zu erhalten! Ihr Warenkorb ist leer A single Mac mini cannot practically run the published Muse Spark Open builds covered here fully in memory. Meta’s documented NVFP4 setup…
Muse Spark Open, Meta + Apple, Thin and ThickStratechery by Ben Thompson · 6 days agoMeta has a new open source model, and to everyone’s surprise, they are are partnering with Apple to make sure you can run it locally. Meta has a new open source model, and to everyone’s surprise, they are are partnering with Apple to make…
Muse Spark vs Beam 1.0 501B-A23B: Benchmarks & CostBenchLM · 7 days agoUpdated October 20, 2026. Rank says Muse Spark is ahead. Price, access, and your workload can each overturn that. Public scores include evidence status and uncertainty. Muse Spark vs Beam 1.0 501B-A23B Muse Spark has the higher public…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onarena.ai

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 7:59 PM ET

Traded$26.7K

Today$782

This week$3.3K

At stake$3.2K

In the news1 headlines today, 20 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta Muse Spark model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, includi

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions