Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Nov 30 · $182 today · $7.9K traded · $2.4K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

Nov 19, 2026even chance by

October 314%
November 3079%▼ 6

How the odds have moved

October 31: 14% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 20, 10 PM ETOctober 31: 14% → 7%
- Judge Lets NAACP Lawsuit Over Southaven xAI Turbines ProceedDeSoto County News · 5 days ago
- Mississippi News Report — Tue, Oct 20: xAI lawsuit, record sentenceTippah News · 5 days ago
- SpaceX’s Shotwell: xAI Staff Shift, 0 Tesla Deals [2026]Tech Insider · 7 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
October 31	4%		3¢	6¢	$17.54	$4.9K
November 30	79%	▼ 6	76¢	81¢	$1.23	$3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: xAI, Grok, Grok Model

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How to Use Grok Models in Claude Code, Cline, Aider and opencode via an OpenAI-Compatible EndpointDEV Community · 3 days agoDisclosure: I build Grokified, the gateway used as the worked example here. The patterns below work with any OpenAI-compatible endpoint. Swap in your own base URL, key and model id. Most AI coding agents let you bring your own model…
Traders Are Letting xAI's Grok Bot Run Unsupervised, and It Already Lost MoneyStartup Fortune · 23 h agoA May 2026 Morse code prompt injection drained $200,000 in DRB tokens from xAI's Bankrbot, exposing the gap between Musk's promise to "make you whole" and a liability cap reportedly set at $100. xAI's Grok Bot now trades around the clock…
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.TechCrunch · 35 h agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming…
Cutting-edge trends in drought prediction and mitigation using ensemble learning and augmented XAI: a meteorological studyNature · 4 days agoThe objectives of this studies are : To develop a ensemble machine learning framework that integrates ground-based climate measurements with remote sensing data to strengthen drought prediction capability. To embed interpretability…
NAACP v. xAI | Constitutional Accountability Center@MyConstitution · 2 days agoIn NAACP v. xAI, the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit considered whether the federal government can block people harmed by the operation of a massive power plant near their homes from suing the plant’s owners and…
Hackers Used Claude and Grok to Automate Cyberattacks on Over 400 Banks and Financial FirmsCyber Security News · 4 days agoA cybercrime group used artificial intelligence (AI) agents to coordinate attacks against more than 400 banks, payment providers and other financial organizations across Latin America, according to a report by cybersecurity company…
Tell Me Lies: Grok, GPT and Claude Voice Modes Guess Bitcoin's PriceCryptoNews · 22 h agoArtificial intelligence (AI) can carry on a conversation, sound like a financial analyst, and deliver a bitcoin price prediction without missing a beat. But does speaking to an AI produce the same quality of reasoning as typing a question…
Tesla Engineer Says Grok Tuned the Cybercab’s New Rearview Camera ViewTeslaNorth.com · 30 h agoA Tesla engineer says Grok helped tune the new rearview camera view that Cybercab riders can now open during a ride, to the point that he didn’t need to read the hardware datasheet. Yun-Ta Tsai, a senior staff engineer at Tesla Super…
Grok AI favors Republican candidates while OpenAI’s GPT leans Democratic, study findsCrypto Briefing · 32 h agoResearchers asked AI models to pick winners in nearly 500 races, and the two chatbots rarely agreed on anything Ask most AI chatbots who deserves your vote, and you’ll get a polite non-answer. Ask the models running underneath them, and…
I Run Several Claude Code Sessions From My Phone. Grok Bot Is the Switchboard.DEV Community · 34 h agoThat is the whole trick: the sessions stay on the machines that have the repositories, the memory and the tools; the conversation about them travels with me. Why one bot per project and not one bot for everything: the bot carries the…
Grok Bot Will Route Your Tasks to Claude. The Moat Just Moved to the Switchboard.Forkast · 32 h agoxAI's agent no longer needs the best model — it needs to own the routing, the data path, and the meter. Enterprise allowlists, for now, are requests. The agent economy, every morning. Blair Hayes Agent Infrastructure All stories by Blair…
SpaceX Enlists 130 Tech Leaders to Help Businesses Deploy Grok AIPYMNTS.com · 2 days agoSpaceX has launched a partner program that offers training, tools and support to companies that build products, solutions and services with the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) model, Grok, according to a Thursday (Oct. 22) press…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 6:59 PM ET

Traded$7.9K

Today$182

This week$1.6K

At stake$2.4K

In the news12 headlines today, 120 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions