Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $4.6K today · $92.1K traded · $16.3K at stake · prices read 28 min ago

The odds

72%Yashar

Yashar72%▲ 10
Yisrael Beiteinu68%▲ 14
Together61%▲ 1
The Democrats47%▼ 21
Otzma Yehudit31%▲ 1
Ra'am31%▲ 9
New Economic Party / The Reservists28%▼ 16
Amcha Yisrael27%▼ 1
Shas27%▲ 2
Likud26%▼ 4
United Torah Judaism26%▼ 3
RZP-Zehut20%▼ 7

3 more

Joint List4%
Noam3%▲ 1
Blue and White2%

How the odds have moved

Yashar: 59% on Oct 20, 72% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yashar	72%	▲ 10	61¢	82¢	$1.22	$11.2K
Yisrael Beiteinu	68%	▲ 14	54¢	81¢	$1.23	$1.7K
Together	61%	▲ 1	57¢	64¢	$1.56	$2.3K
The Democrats	47%	▼ 21	24¢	69¢	$1.45	$3K
Otzma Yehudit	31%	▲ 1	17¢	44¢	$2.27	$4.3K
Ra'am	31%	▲ 9	30¢	31¢	$3.23	$26K
New Economic Party / The Reservists	28%	▼ 16	18¢	38¢	$2.63	$3.9K
Amcha Yisrael	27%	▼ 1	25¢	29¢	$3.45	$3.7K
Shas	27%	▲ 2	15¢	38¢	$2.63	$1.8K
Likud	26%	▼ 4	19¢	33¢	$3.03	$12.4K
United Torah Judaism	26%	▼ 3	21¢	30¢	$3.33	$3.3K
RZP-Zehut	20%	▼ 7	13¢	27¢	$3.70	$4.7K
Joint List	4%		3¢	5¢	$18.87	$3.8K
Noam	3%	▲ 1	3¢	4¢	$24.39	$9.5K
Blue and White	2%		0¢	4¢	$26.32	$499

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Yisrael Beiteinu

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Lieberman: Yisrael Beiteinu party to sit in oppositionJewish Journal · 2 days agoAvigdor Lieberman said his Yisrael Beiteinu party would not join the new government coalition and he was resigning as foreign minister. Lieberman, who heads the right-wing party, said in an announcement on Monday that he would submit a…
Dissent In The Ranks: Yisrael Beiteinu MK Quits Party@YWN · 2 days agoYisrael Beiteinu MK Eli Avidar announced on Sunday morning that he will be operating independently in the new government and will not commit to voting with Yisrael Beiteinu or being part of the party. However, Avidar said that he will vote…
Yisrael Beiteinu responds to Eisenkot: 'He should clarify who his partners are'ynetglobal · 2 days agoThe Yisrael Beiteinu party responded to statements by Yesh! chairman Gadi Eisenkot, who sharply attacked party chairman Avigdor Liberman and Yachad chairman Naftali Bennett. Yisrael Beiteinu stated: "Liberman has no ego and has experience…
“A Dictator, Hates Everyone, A Liar”- Ex-Yisrael Beiteinu Minister Slams Lieberman@YWN · 2 days agoSofa Landver, a former senior Yisrael Beiteinu MK who served as the Minister of Aliyah and Absorption for eight years, published a video on Sunday night revealing her true opinion of her former boss, Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor…
Yisrael Beiteinu: Merger with Likud won’t make Lieberman PMJewish Journal · 2 days agoYisrael Beiteinu has denied reports that party leader Avigdor Lieberman would become prime minister under a secret pact between his movement and Likud. “There is no pact for rotation in the role of prime minister,” Yisrael Beiteinu…
Will Benjamin Netanyahu Win Israel Election? What Polls ShowNewsweek · 23 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 07:50 AM EDT Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will struggle to retain power, according to latest polling ahead of his first electoral test since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent conflicts in…
Liberman to attorney general: investigate Netanyahu on suspicion of treasonynetglobal · 31 h agoYisrael Beiteinu party leader Avigdor Liberman appealed to Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara with a demand to open a criminal investigation against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Liberman claimed in his letter that Netanyahu's…
Israeli press review: Netanyahu accused of pushing Iran escalation ahead of electionMiddle East Eye · 25 h agoIsrael’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and army chief Eyal Zamir clashed on Sunday over an instruction that Zamir feared could trigger a military confrontation with Iran just days before Israel’s legislative elections, Channel 12 News…
Israel Election 2026 Date: When Will Israelis Vote? Check Election Schedule, Key Candidates, Major Parties & Latest UpdatesThe Sunday Guardian · 46 h agoThe Israel Election 2026 is scheduled for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. The vote will determine the composition of the 26th Knesset, Israel’s national legislature. According to the official election timetable, the publication of election…
Final polls before 2026 Israeli elections predict coalition deadlockThe Jewish Chronicle · 21 h agoGaid Eisenkot retains a comfortable cushion over incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but neither bloc looks set to gain enough seats to form a majority government The final polls before the 2026 Israeli elections show that the…
Netanyahu and Eisenkot clash over security on eve of Israeli voteSBS News · 18 h agoPublished 27 October 2026 7:09am Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrapped up his campaign to remain in power on Tuesday with a claim that Israel faced potential annihilation at the hands of Iran should his election rivals prevail…
Israeli Political Scientist Outlines 3 Possible Scenarios for Parliamentary ElectionsSputnik International · 2 days agoTEL AVIV (Sputnik) - Events surrounding parliamentary elections in Israel could unfold according to one of three scenarios, with the possibility of a coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu securing a parliamentary majority…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onmain.knesset.gov.il

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 7:59 PM ET

Traded$92.1K

Today$4.6K

This week$14.7K

At stake$16.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, incl

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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