Texas Railroad Commissioner Election Winner

Polymarket Elections Closes Nov 3 · $441 today · $35K traded · $4.4K at stake · prices read 24 min ago

The odds

51%Jon Rosenthal (D)

Jon Rosenthal (D)51%
Bo French (R)47%▼ 4

How the odds have moved

Jon Rosenthal (D): 39% on Oct 20, 51% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 23, 11 PM ETJon Rosenthal (D): 52% → 46%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Jon Rosenthal (D)	51%		50¢	51¢	$1.96	$15.9K
Bo French (R)	47%	▼ 4	45¢	48¢	$2.08	$19.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Texas Railroad Commissioner

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John Oliver Issues Urgent Warning Ahead of Midterms About the Republican Party’s Nazi TiesVariety · 30 h agoJohn Oliver returned to the “Last Week Tonight” desk after a two-week absence and focused the entirety of Sunday night’s episode on a “worrying trend that’s been on the rise” amongst the Republican Party ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm…
Trump endorses nearly every major Texas Republican candidate with two notable exceptionsSan Antonio Current · 4 days agoPresident Donald Trump posted a list of endorsements Thursday morning that included nearly all Texas Republicans seeking statewide office — but with a couple of notable exceptions. Despite their MAGA loyalty, Trump didn’t say he’s backing…
Bexar County voters claim voting machines switched or removed selectionsKSAT · 4 days agoBEXAR COUNTY, Texas – Tens of thousands of Bexar County voters are casting ballots every day for early voting, but not always easily. KSAT spoke with multiple voters who said voting machines changed or removed their selections during the…
Dolly Parton's sister joins freakout as voters say machines 'flipped' votes to RepublicansRaw Story · 5 days agoPeople hold signs at a "No Kings: Vote Early" protest as part of a coordinated nationwide day of action aimed at encouraging early voting in the upcoming midterm elections in San Francisco, California, US, October 17, 2026. REUTERS/Carlos…
Voters head to the polls in four-way race for Texas's 34th Congressional DistrictKRGV · 5 days ago(KRGV) — Voting has begun in Texas's 34th Congressional District, where four candidates are on the ballot. Channel 5 News is introducing the candidates in alphabetical order by last name. The issues they talked about include the cost of…
Libertarians, Independents running in key statewide races in TexasThe Center Square · 6 days ago(The Center Square) – In key statewide races where incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott and other Republicans are showing slight leads in polling, Independents and Libertarians are running. The lesser-known candidates are running as Texas native and…
Texas governor’s race: Abbott holds narrow lead over Hinojosa in latest pollFOX 26 Houston · 6 days agoThe What's Your Point panel shares their expectations for Texas' governor race with a little over two weeks left until Election Day. HOUSTON - Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott holds a slim lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa as the pair…
‘They’re lying’ claims scandal-plagued Republican as debate he ‘never agreed to’ collapsesRaw Story · 6 days agoBo French, Republican candidate for Texas Railroad Commissioner, attends a midterm rally for Texas Attorney General and Republican US Senate candidate Ken Paxton in San Antonio, Texas, US October 18, 2026. REUTERS/Joel Angel Juarez Bo…
Surge in social media hate a growing concern for Long Island's South AsiansNewsday · 6 days agoSabitra Siwakoti, a nurse practitioner at Nassau University Medical Center and president of the Long Island Nepalese Society. Credit: Rick Kopstein Stony Brook University student Rabia Chattha decided to download the social media platform…
Democrat Jon Rosenthal outraises Bo French in Railroad Commission race in latest reportOutSmart Magazine · 18 days agoby Carlos Nogueras Ramos, The Texas Tribune October 6, 2026 Donors from every state but North Dakota gave money to Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal’s campaign for Texas Railroad Commissioner, sending roughly $488,000 in contributions to…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 6:59 PM ET

Traded$35K

Today$441

This week$11.5K

At stake$4.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions