Arkansas Senate Election Winner
95%Tom Cotton (R)
- Tom Cotton (R)95%▼ 1
- Hallie Shoffner (D)5%
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Arkansas Senate winner? (2026)
The odds
95%Tom Cotton
- Tom Cotton95%▼ 1
- Hallie Shoffner6%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Tom Cotton: 95% on Oct 20, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 95% | ▼ 1 | 95¢ | 95¢ | $1.06 | 98.9K |
| Hallie Shoffner | 6% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | 250.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- Arkansas Senate winner? (2026)Hallie Shoffner (D)Kalshi 6%Polymarket 5%1 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Arkansas Senate, Tom Cotton, Hallie Shoffner
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In Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race, Tom Cotton has most cash on hand, while Hallie Shoffner leads in fundraisingThe Arkansas Democrat-Gazette In Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race, Tom Cotton has most cash on hand, while Hallie Shoffner leads in fundraising -
Tom Cotton Leads Comfortably in ArkansasPolitical Wire Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 191 A new Talk Business and Politics/Hendrix College poll in Arkansas finds Tom Cotton (R) leading Hallie Shoffner (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 41%, with Jeff Wadlin (L) at 5%… -
What Arkansans said on the first day of early votingPublished 5:54 am Wednesday, October 21, 2026 By Ainsley Platt, Tess Vrbin and Angie Ramirez/Arkansas Advocate Polls across Arkansas opened for early voting Monday, with thousands of people expected to cast their ballots before Election… -
Arkansas Advocate: What Arkansans said on the first day of early voting for the midterm electionVoters cast their ballots on the first day of early voting at the Hillary Rodham Clinton Children’s Library in Little Rock, Arkansas on Monday, October 19, 2026. Polls across Arkansas opened for early voting Monday, with thousands of… -
Hundreds turn out for Hallie Shoffner rally in Fayetteville ahead of early votingFAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Hundreds of people packed into a rally at George's Majestic Lounge in Fayetteville Thursday night to hear from Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner. Shoffner is running against incumbent Republican Sen. Tom… -
Early Voting Kicks Off in ArkansasEarly voting has kicked off in Arkansas, and citizens will have two weeks to cast a ballot for the upcoming Nov. 3 general election. Before sorting through the myriad candidates and races on the ballot, take time to make sure you are… -
What Arkansans said on the first day of early voting for the midterm electionPolls across Arkansas opened for early voting Monday, with thousands of people expected to cast their ballots before Election Day next month. Polls will be open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday through Friday until Election Day, and from 10… -
Senators help PB Arsenal break ground on Plainview GateThe Pine Bluff Arsenal took another step in its revitalization with the groundbreaking of a $24.6-million access control point at its Plainview Gate on Monday (Oct. 19). Sens. John Boozman and Tom Cotton, both R-Ark., part of the… -
November 2026 ArkLaMiss election guideMONROE, La. (KNOE) - Voters all across the U.S. will go to the polls on Nov. 3 for the 2026 midterm elections. Here is a look at what voters will be deciding in both Louisiana and Arkansas. You can get election results here, and also learn… - Early Voting Now Open for Southeast Arkansas November General ElectionEarly voting for Arkansas’s November 3rd general election began Monday, October 19th, giving registered voters across Southeast Arkansas an opportunity to cast their ballots ahead of Election Day. Early voting will continue through Monday…
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'Little of it was constructive’: GOP bemoans a distracted Trump in midterms’ final stretchNo one counts on Trump for message discipline, but some had hoped that he or his staff would at least limit the distractions in the final weeks of the campaign. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White…
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All senate ›Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)
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- Republican party92%
- Democratic party8%
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Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
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2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
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- R-House, D-Senate1%
Texas Senate Election Winner
64%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)64%▼ 3
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.