Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31 · $7.3K today · $1.2M traded · $289K at stake · prices read 16 min ago

The odds

77%Nicolás Maduro

Nicolás Maduro77%▼ 1
Delcy Rodríguez22%▼ 2
María Corina Machado4%▲ 1
Marco Rubio2%
Donald Trump2%
Vladimir Padrino López1%
Jorge Rodríguez1%
Edmundo González1%
Dinorah Figuera1%
Juan Guaidó1%
Pete Hegseth1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón1%

6 more

Frank Donovan<1%
Miguel Rodríguez Torres<1%
Richard Grenell<1%
Evan Pettus<1%
Dan Caine<1%
Stephen Miller<1%

How the odds have moved

Nicolás Maduro: 76% on Oct 20, 77% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Nicolás Maduro	77%	▼ 1	77¢	79¢	$1.27	1.0M
Delcy Rodríguez	22%	▼ 2	22¢	24¢	$4.17	1.4M
María Corina Machado	4%	▲ 1	3¢	7¢	$13.70	1.2M
Marco Rubio	2%		2¢	2¢	$52.63	363.3K
Donald Trump	2%		2¢	2¢	$52.63	369.9K
Vladimir Padrino López	1%			3¢	$35.71	71.6K
Jorge Rodríguez	1%		0¢	2¢	$43.48	44.4K
Edmundo González	1%		1¢	2¢	$52.63	442.2K
Dinorah Figuera	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	21.5K
Juan Guaidó	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	7.0K
Pete Hegseth	1%		1¢	1¢	$100.00	131.9K
Diosdado Cabello Rondón	1%		0¢	1¢	$76.92	88.2K
Frank Donovan	<1%		0¢	1¢		116.7K
Miguel Rodríguez Torres	<1%			1¢	$100.00	2.7K
Richard Grenell	<1%		0¢	1¢		83.1K
Evan Pettus	<1%		0¢	0¢		183.2K
Dan Caine	<1%		0¢	1¢		188.3K
Stephen Miller	<1%		0¢	0¢		68.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Venezuela, Maduro, Nicolás Maduro

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Delcy Rodriguez: Latest News and UpdatesSouth China Morning Post · 2 days agoThe latest news and top stories on Delcy Rodriguez, the interim president of Venezuela. Following the abduction of leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife in a US military operation on January 3, 2026, Rodriguez was sworn in as the country’s…
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela from exile for first time since Maduro’s ousterNew York Post · 18 h agoNobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado reemerged from exile in Venezuela on Sunday for the first time since late last year, when she fled due to fears about her safety. Machado, who had been banned from running for…
Exiled Venezuelan opposition leader announces her returnthe Guardian · 21 h agoNobel laureate María Corina Machado’s return after almost a year in exile is unlikely to please interim president Delcy Rodríguez The Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has announced she has returned to Venezuela, almost a…
Opposition leader Machado returns to Venezuela from exileCNN · 22 h agoAfter more than 10 months in exile, Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado has returned home to a political landscape that has been reshaped by her ally the United States without her involvement. “I am here…
Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado returns after months in exileNPR · 22 h agoCARACAS, Venezuela — Opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado reappeared in Venezuela Sunday for the first time since December, about a month before the U.S. military deposed the country's then-President Nicolás Maduro…
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado makes surprise return home after nearly a year abroadFox News · 20 h agoVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado joins Rachel Campos-Duffy in Panama to warn Americans about the dangers of socialism ahead of the midterms. Machado shares a direct message to President Donald Trump, praising his…
Venezuelan opposition leader María Machado returns after months in exileBBC News · 22 h agoVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has returned home to a fraught political landscape after over 10 months in exile. "I am here. With you," Machado wrote on X on Sunday. Her ally, former presidential candidate Edmundo…
Venezuelans in South Florida weigh Maria Corina Machado's return and what comes next for the countryCBS News · 14 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 8:11 PM EDT / CBS Miami Patrons at a Venezuelan restaurant in South Florida gathered Sunday to discuss news of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado's return to Venezuela, weighing questions about the country's future…
Venezuela's opposition leader Machado returns after months in exile, as doubts over democracy deepenCNBC · 20 h agoOpposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado reappeared in Venezuela Sunday for the first time since December, returning from exile as doubts about the country's democratic future — and the role of the U.S. — grow. It was her…
Trump Finds Potential Election Matchup Between Delcy Rodríguez and María Corina Machado "Intriguing"CubaHeadlines · 4 days agoThursday, October 22, 2026 by Samantha Mendoza U.S. President Donald Trump has described the possibility of a presidential election face-off between Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, and opposition leader María Corina Machado…
Venezuela’s Acting Pres. Delcy Rodríguez Meets 2015 Assembly Delegations - teleSUR EnglishteleSURenglish · 3 days agoOctober 22, 2026 Hour: 11:50 pm The meeting presented the balance and details of the third cycle of conversations held in Caracas, a process that included six working sessions structured in two plenary sessions and fifteen meetings. On…
Does Delcy Rodríguez have any options?Links · 3 days agoSome critics of the leftist government question the credibility of Rodríguez’s claim. Her version, however, makes perfect sense. Trump himself repeatedly made similar threats in public, though couched in more oblique language. And…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onperson, official government website, agency

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 9:59 AM ET

Traded$1.2M (5,819,628 contracts)

Today$7.3K

This week$51.7K

At stake$289K

In the news92 headlines today, 444 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Edmundo González Urrutia officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions