Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
4%chance▼ 1
Install
When will Trump lower tariffs on Canada?
The odds
35%Before Apr 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 202619%▲ 1
- Before Dec 1, 202635%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202735%▲ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202735%
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 20% on Oct 19, 19% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2% | $50.00 | 3.8K | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 19% | ▲ 1 | 16¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 505 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 35% | ▲ 1 | 36¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 57.00 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 35% | ▲ 1 | 48¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 108 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 35% | $2.88 | 115 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff, Canada
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‘Tariff Man’ finally found tariffs he doesn’t likePresident Donald Trump loves tariffs so much that during his first term, he nicknamed himself “Tariff Man.” Trump tripled down on tariffs during his second term, lobbing them on friends and enemies alike, in an attempt to revive American… -
Russia waiver leaves tariff leverage intactDelivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy. You will now start receiving email updates 10/19/2026 10:00 AM EDT With help from Ari Hawkins President Donald Trump’s decision… -
The U.S. badly needs new tariff lawsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Right now, the legal… -
EU tariffs aimed at China hitting Ukraine, steel boss saysThe boss of one of Ukraine's biggest steel companies has called on the European Union to drop import restrictions on products made from the country, arguing it has been "bundled together" in measures aimed a curbing cheap imports from the… -
Canada-US Tariff Dispute Raises Residential Construction CostsCanada: Counter-tariffs introduced on 8 September 2026 are increasing residential construction costs in Ontario, according to a report by the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON). The measures are estimated to add CAD 9,000… -
Commentary: Canadian tariffs show Trump won’t be pushed aroundPresident Trump has again proved he will not be pushed around. When Washington slapped a 50 percent tariff on $20 billion in Canadian goods, Ottawa fired back dollar-for-dollar, effective September 8, with new duties of up to 50 percent on… -
Bank of Canada flags hotter inflation expectations as tariffs cloud outlookThe central bank reported that "overall business sentiment improved," with stronger third quarter sales views. Its outlook indicator ticked up to minus 0.33, while investment intentions eased but remained "robust." Most responses were… -
Washington Cuts Canadian Lumber Duties as Trump’s Tariff StaysWorld’s First Bamboo Tower Could Rise 11 Storeys Over St Louis Riverfront Tasmania Picks Its Builder for Macquarie Point’s Timber Stadium AKD Urges Frame and Truss Manufacturers to Heed the Taxi Lesson on Uber Why Australia Needs a Push… -
US-Canada trade war: How Canada’s retaliatory tariffs affect e-commerceThe U.S.-Canada trade relationship has entered a tense phase, with new tariffs implemented by both sides in late August and early September. This latest exchange adds costs to goods flowing in both directions, creating uncertainty across… -
Trump’s Tariff Strategy Collides With $2 Trillion US DeficitOct 16, 2026 at 10:35 PM EDT President Donald Trump's push to use tariffs to raise federal revenue and help tackle the national debt collided with a stark fiscal reality Friday: The United States ended the 2026 fiscal year with a budget… -
Trump waives key Russia-related sanctions, tariffs before they take effect under new lawPresident Donald Trump waived key Russia-related U.S. sanctions and tariffs days before they were to take effect under a law he signed last month, including duties on the country's goods and penalties for buying its oil and gas. In an… -
'Canada Is United Unlike U.S.': Mark Carney Takes Massive Dig At Trump Amid Tariff WarThe Times of India - 'Canada Is United Unlike U.S.': Mark Carney Takes Massive Dig At Trump Amid Tariff War A U.S. Air Force service member has died after a horrifying fall during a pregame military demonstration at the Alamodome in San…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.