Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
185.9median
140230
Median 185.9Middle half 175.9 – 197.6
Install
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei?
The odds
6%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 20276%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 7% on Oct 20, 6% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3% | $33.33 | 7.7K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6% | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 13.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei
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Iran pols finally admit they want nuclear weapons: ‘It’s a necessity more important than bread’More and more of Iran’s politicians and hardliners are demanding the country develop nuclear weapons as war continues with the US and Israel — finally admitting what has long been feared by both nations. Top lawmakers, analysts and… -
Amerika niyarekura ibombe, ingabo zabo mu karere zizokwicwa – Umushikiranganji mushasha wa Iran ajejwe kwivuna abansiAmerika niyarekura ibombe, ingabo zabo mu karere zizokwicwa – Umushikiranganji wa Iran ajejwe kwivuna abansi BBC Amerika niyarekura ibombe, ingabo zabo mu karere zizokwicwa – Umushikiranganji mushasha wa Iran ajejwe kwivuna abansi Mu gihe… -
Trump faces escalating oil crisis over Iran blocking Strait of HormuzThe International Energy Agency said it's the largest disruption in history. President Donald Trump is facing an escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply remains caught in the crosshairs… -
Iranian Lawmaker Calls For Obtaining a Nuclear Weapon, Suggests New Supreme Leader Could Be More Open to It.An Iranian lawmaker appeared to suggest that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei could be more open to pursuing a nuclear weapon than his father, Ali Khamenei. "From Mojtaba Khamenei's conduct, my understanding is that his fatwa will be… -
Iran Hardliners: Time to Embrace Nuclear WeaponsIranian hardliners are increasingly calling for Tehran to develop nuclear weapons, abandon a decades-old religious prohibition against atomic arms and withdraw from an international nonproliferation treaty following devastating U.S. and… -
Trump threatens to ‘finish the job’ against Iran, endorses NetanyahuUS President Donald Trump warned the United States could “soon finish the job” against Iran unless Tehran changes course, while giving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu his “complete and total endorsement” for re-election. In a… -
Iran’s Imperial Japan Syndrome: How Military Rule Could Jeopardize Its FutureThe Islamic Republic – historically dominated by its religious leadership – has increasingly come under military control[i] since the beginning of American and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in February 2026. Previously, Ali Khamenei, the… - Iran killed 75,000 protesters in eight months, Donald Trump claimsIran has killed at least 75,000 protesters over the last eight months, US President Donald Trump claimed during a rally in Kansas on Monday. "They did a lot of killing. And by the way, in the last eight months, they've killed 75,000…
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'Last time you wanted to finish the job...': Iranian foreign minister challenges Donald TrumpThe Iranian foreign minister further claimed that Netanyahu was attempting to drag Washington into another conflict to avoid facing legal consequences in Israel, warning of serious repercussions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has… -
US President Donald Trump vows Iran will never get nuclear weaponThe President said the United States had successfully struck Iran's nuclear infrastructure and was taking steps to ensure that the programme could not be revived. Updated On: 18 October, 2026 11:48 AM IST | Washington | IANS The President… -
UNUSUAL IRANIAN ACTIVITY: Netanyahu Briefs Trump as U.S. Reviews Strike Plans, Officials See No Immediate ThreatWestern intelligence agencies have reportedly detected unusual military activity in Iran in recent days, prompting close monitoring in Israel and Washington and consultations between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald… -
Iranian official calls to develop nuclear bomb, ignore Khamenei's nuclear policyALBAWABA - An Iranian official urged his country to develop an atomic bomb amid continued tension in the region, the failure in reaching a peace deal with the United States, and possible resumption of war. Ahmad Naderi, an Iranian…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.