Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.9 – 200.8
Install
Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?
The odds
33%Uganda
- Uganda33%▲ 1
- Democratic Republic of the Congo11%▼ 1
- Syria9%▲ 1
- Lebanon8%
- Yemen5%
- Iraq4%
- Iran4%
- Haiti3%▼ 5
- Burma (Myanmar)3%
- South Sudan3%
- Ukraine3%
- Gaza3%
6 more
- Libya3%
- Russia2%
- Sudan2%
- North Korea2%
- Afghanistan1%
- Somalia1%
How the odds have moved
Uganda: 35% on Oct 20, 33% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda | 33% | ▲ 1 | 33¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 936 |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 11% | ▼ 1 | 10¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 1.1K |
| Syria | 9% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 8.5K |
| Lebanon | 8% | 8¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 8.2K | |
| Yemen | 5% | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 3.1K | |
| Iraq | 4% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $15.87 | 2.1K | |
| Iran | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 32.6K | |
| Haiti | 3% | ▼ 5 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 2.5K |
| Burma (Myanmar) | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.39 | 269 | |
| South Sudan | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | 533 | |
| Ukraine | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | 7.0K | |
| Gaza | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | 419 | |
| Libya | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | 279 | |
| Russia | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $45.45 | 3.4K | |
| Sudan | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 265 | |
| North Korea | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 324 | |
| Afghanistan | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | 1.8K | |
| Somalia | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 7.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Travel Advisory
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State Department issues travel advisory for France ahead of Steelers-Saints Paris gameCBS News State Department issues travel advisory for France ahead of Steelers-Saints Paris game Latest stories from KDKA investigates Reading Ready Pittsburgh teams up with Too Small to Fail initiative Why is coming home from vacation so… -
US Tightens Israel Travel Advisory Amid Rising Houthi ThreatThe United States has updated its Israel travel advisory, highlighting risks from expanding Houthi activity in the Red Sea and broader Middle East region. The United States has tightened its travel advisory for Israel, citing the growing… -
Lebanon Travel Advisory Tightens in October 2026Major governments renew “do not travel” warnings for Lebanon in October 2026, citing armed conflict, terrorism risks, and unpredictable border and airspace closures. Lebanon remains subject to some of the strictest travel warnings in the… -
Travel Advisory Update: Saudi Arabia in October 2026Heightened missile and drone attacks, new travel advisories and evolving entry rules reshape the risk calculus for trips to Saudi Arabia in October 2026. Heightened missile and drone attacks on airports and energy facilities, alongside… -
US updates Gulf, Middle East travel advisories over threat of Houthi 'aggression'Middle East Eye US updates Gulf, Middle East travel advisories over threat of Houthi 'aggression' The United States updated travel advisories for countries across the Gulf and the wider Middle East, citing what it described as the threat… - US Tightens Israel Travel Advisory Over Rising Houthi ThreatThe United States has updated its Israel travel advisory, highlighting a growing Houthi threat and warning Americans about potential flight disruptions and rapid regional escalation. The United States has tightened its travel advisory for…
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U.S. Issues Five New Travel Advisories Affecting Disney TripsNew U.S. travel advisories and security alerts now touch Disney-bound itineraries in Florida, California, France, Japan and Mexico, prompting travelers to rethink routes and timing. Recent updates to U.S. travel advisories and related… -
Incidents involving Koreans in 10 nations under travel advisory rise 50%: dataKorean criminal suspects repatriated from Cambodia are taken to police vehicles after arriving at Incheon International Airport, Oct. 18, 2025. Joint Press Corps The number of accidents and incidents involving Korean nationals in 10 major… -
Jordan Travel Advisory Update: What Visitors Need to Know NowRegional tensions and evolving foreign travel advisories are reshaping how visitors plan trips to Jordan in October 2026 and the months ahead. Jordan remains open to international visitors in October 2026, but a series of updated foreign… -
Travel Advisory: Bahrain October 2026The Travel Advisory for Bahrain was updated on October 23, 2026, to reflect the threat of increased Iranian-supported Houthi regional aggression. The Travel Advisory reads: There were no changes to the advisory level or risk indicators… -
US Updates Bahrain Travel Advisory Over Iran-Houthi ThreatsThe U.S. State Department updated its travel advisory summary for the Middle Eastern island nation of Bahrain and kept the “Level 3-Reconsider travel” designation because of armed conflict and terrorism threats. “Iranian-supported Houthis… -
Incidents involving South Koreans in 10 nations under travel advisory rise 50 pc: GovtHome » International » Incidents involving South Koreans in 10 nations under travel advisory rise 50 pc: Govt Posted By: Gopi October 24, 2026 Seoul, Oct 25 (SocialNews.XYZ) The number of accidents and incidents involving South Korean…
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296.7median
250340
Median 296.7Middle half 283.9 – 308.3
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Mar 2, 2028even chance by
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- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
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- Before Aug 1, 202733%
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- Before Jan 1, 202847%▼ 1
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Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
194.5median
160230
Median 194.5Middle half 187.4 – 202.8
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
296.8median
250340
Median 296.8Middle half 290.4 – 306.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.1median
160230
Median 197.1Middle half 189.4 – 202.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions