Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3%chance
Install
Will Temporary Protected Status for Ukraine end in 2026?
The odds
11%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 30% on Oct 19, 11% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 20, 2 PM ET30% → 11%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 2.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
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Ukrainian President Zelensky confirms access to Starshield has been restoredAfter a week of slow Starlink speeds hindering Ukrainian military operations, the Ukrainian defense ministry announced on Saturday that full access to the military grade internet service has been restored. Voter turnout is already high in… -
Ukraine war latest: Zelensky supports resuming trilateral peace talks with US, Russia after Putin claims Kremlin readinessKey developments on Oct. 21: Witkoff's visit to St. Petersburg follows his Oct. 20 meeting with Zelensky and European allies in Oslo to discuss peace proposals to pass along to the Kremlin. Witkoff described both the Oslo and St… -
Russia Launches Deadly Missile Barrage on Ukraine Hours After Putin-US TalksOct 22, 2026 at 05:28 AM EDT Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine just hours after U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff called President Vladimir Putin a "humanitarian" in a face-to-face meeting. Ukraine's Air Force said… -
Putin, citing genetics, claims Ukrainian land ‘is not their territory’A first-time mother of the bride writes to our advice columnists: If she’s contributing money to her daughter’s upcoming nuptials … does she get any influence over whom they invite? Not much has been said about the wedding plans, the… -
Melania Trump's advisor reveals how she bridged Putin, Zelenskyy to broker frontline Ukraine truceMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss first lady Melania Trump's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Beckman details how the first lady successfully brokered a ceasefire in Oleshky, allowing… -
Zelensky: If you give something to Putin, he will want everythingCNN Zelensky: If you give something to Putin, he will want everything Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to Christiane Amanpour from Kyiv about his relationship with President Trump and impact of the U.S. diesel deal with Russia. -
Zelensky reacts to Putin being called ‘humanitarian by US envoy | CNNIn an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave his views on US special envoy Steve Witkoff calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a "humanitarian" after Putin freed a detained American… -
The Trump-Putin love story’s next chapter: selling out UkraineThe US president is portraying Zelenskyy as the villain as he strives for Russia’s approval If Donald Trump could, he would fly to Munich to sign away Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, and return to wave the document as “peace in our time”… -
Zelensky Warns Ukraine Faces Critical Moment - Amanpour - Podcast on CNN PodcastsUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discusses the struggle to defend his country as another winter of war approaches and his growing concerns about US support. Also on today's show: Albanian MP and protester Marjana Koçeku and New York… -
First Russian diesel tanker heads to New York after Trump's deal with Putin to lower fuel pricesRetired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro discusses President Donald Trump's diesel deal with Russia as a tanker heads to the US on 'America Reports.' The first tanker with 40,000 tons of diesel left for New York from Russia earlier… -
RUSSIA’S NEXT MOVE: Trump pushes Ukraine peace deal as experts warn Putin could strike againPresident Donald Trump suggests a deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war could be within reach as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signals openness to freezing the front lines and Russia releases an imprisoned American. RUSSIA’S NEXT… -
Ukraine war briefing: New peace proposals lack ‘substance’, says Kremlin after Witkoff-Putin meeting in RussiaUS envoy Witkoff presented Putin with proposals drafted by Zelenskyy and European leaders in Oslo earlier this week. What we know on day 1,702The Kremlin has criticised new peace proposals to end the war after US envoy Steve Witkoff met…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.