Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Dec 31, 2029 · $3 traded · $3 at stake · prices read 10 h ago

The odds

85%OpenAI

OpenAI85%
Google78%
Meta61%
Xiaomi60%
Baidu60%
Tencent55%
DeepSeek45%
Moonshot45%
Z AI45%
MiniMax45%
xAI40%
Alibaba30%

21 more

ByteDance25%
Amazon15%
Microsoft15%
Huawei10%
Mistral8%
StepFun5%
NVIDIA5%
Thinking Machines5%
China Mobile5%
Institute of Foundation Models5%
Upstage5%
InclusionAI5%
LongCat5%
Cohere5%
Inception5%
Arcee AI5%
Safe Superintelligence5%
Reflection AI5%
Essential AI5%
Prime Intellect5%
LG AI Research5%

How the odds have moved

OpenAI: 85% on Oct 19, 85% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
OpenAI	85%	81¢	89¢	$1.12
Google	78%	74¢	82¢	$1.22
Meta	61%	57¢	65¢	$1.54
Xiaomi	60%	56¢	64¢	$1.56
Baidu	60%	56¢	64¢	$1.56
Tencent	55%	51¢	59¢	$1.69
DeepSeek	45%	41¢	49¢	$2.04
Moonshot	45%	41¢	49¢	$2.04
Z AI	45%	41¢	49¢	$2.04	5.00
MiniMax	45%	41¢	49¢	$2.04	2.00
xAI	40%	36¢	44¢	$2.27
Alibaba	30%	26¢	34¢	$2.94
ByteDance	25%	21¢	29¢	$3.45
Amazon	15%	11¢	19¢	$5.26
Microsoft	15%	11¢	19¢	$5.26
Huawei	10%	6¢	14¢	$7.14
Mistral	8%	4¢	12¢	$8.33
StepFun	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
NVIDIA	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Thinking Machines	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
China Mobile	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Institute of Foundation Models	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Upstage	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
InclusionAI	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
LongCat	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Cohere	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Inception	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Arcee AI	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Safe Superintelligence	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Reflection AI	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Essential AI	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Prime Intellect	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11
LG AI Research	5%	1¢	9¢	$11.11

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence

Search ›

Did Texas use artificial intelligence to call fourth-down play against Florida? Longhorns AD clarifies reportOutKick · 36 h agoArch Manning 2026 season at Texas has far underperformed what many expected out of a potential top-10 draft pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Ryan Leaf speaks with Craig Carton about Manning's season so far. On the same day that the University…
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.TechCrunch · 18 h agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming…
OpenAI now trains its frontier AI models with no internet accessThe Verge · 33 h agoAI agents can still communicate without a network connection, OpenAI found. OpenAI paused training its frontier AI models in September, after disclosing several incidents in which its AI agents broke out of their testing environments to…
Jack Dorsey’s Block made an AI model that talks to you like an awkward new friendThe Verge · 35 h agoYou have got to listen to these conversations with Block’s new Dessa AI model. Jack Dorsey’s Block announced an AI model called Dessa that’s trained “from scratch on nothing but human conversation,” and to show off the model, Block shared…
How artificial intelligence is helping doctors and patients fight breast cancerCBS News · 3 days agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. How…
Artificial Intelligence Advances Precision Cardiovascular CareEuropean Medical Journal · 6 h agoArtificial intelligence in cardiovascular medicine advances diagnostics, risk prediction, and clinical decision support. This site is intended for healthcare professionals Artificial Intelligence Advances Precision Cardiovascular Care…
OpenAI says it will no longer train its AI models on the live internet, citing “significant risks”TechCrunch · 31 h agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. “Based on the current state of alignment research, monitoring systems, and the security of internet infrastructure, we believe the responsible approach is to conduct…
#Artificial IntelligenceGrit Daily News · 30 h agoSeraphis Group, a global private investment group, has announced plans to commit 3 billion dollars to artificial intelligence startups over the next 12 months. The commitment makes AI one of the group’s most significant areas of focus as…
Letter: Delay the deployment of artificial intelligenceGrand Forks Herald · 10 h agoWhile the promise of AI dominates headlines, the mounting societal and environmental risks demand a profound and immediate slowdown. Letter: Delay the deployment of artificial intelligence While the promise of AI dominates headlines, the…
Artificial Intelligence: A Blessing or a Curse?The Good Men Project · 9 h ago“Generative AI is one of the most exciting and powerful technologies of our time, but it also presents new challenges and risks that we need to address thoughtfully and proactively.” Is every great invention a blessing or a curse? What if…
Mathematical Foundations of Artificial Intelligence (MFAI)@NSF · 18 h agoStatus: Waiting for new publication Important information for proposers and award recipients All proposals must be submitted in accordance with the requirements specified in the funding opportunity and in the Proposal & Award Policies &…
Artificial intelligence now detects most wildfires in CaliforniaLiberty Unyielding · 12 h agoArtificial intelligence helped a company detect a big source of geothermal energy. The nation of Zambia used artificial intelligence to find new mineral wealth. Artificial intelligence appears to be have created more jobs than it…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onArtificial Analysis, Epoch AI, LiveBench

Trading closesDec 31, 2029 11:58 PM ET

Traded$3 (7 contracts)

This week$3

At stake$3

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If OpenAI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company248.00−0.95%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company99.64−2.14%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company77.20−1.00%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company320.21−1.24%
METAMETA · about the company
MSFTMSFT · about the company
NVDANVDA · about the company

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.