Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance
Install
What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
The odds
20%median
5%150%
Median 20%Middle half 13.15% – 28.33%
How the odds have moved
Median: 20.33% on Oct 20, 20% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% or above | 96% | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| 15% or above | 63% | 58¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | ||
| 20% or above | 50% | 46¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 2.8K | |
| 30% or above | 20% | 15¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 13.00 | |
| 50% or above | 8% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 1.00 | |
| 100% or above | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff
Search ›-
Trump: Tariffs have made us richPresident Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United States at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Fla. Trump: Tariffs have made us rich President Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United… -
Trade tariffs cause whiplash at Port MilwaukeeSacha Pfeiffer visits Port Milwaukee to see how President Trump's tariffs have affected the flow of goods and impacted the regional economy. Trade tariffs cause whiplash at Port Milwaukee Sacha Pfeiffer visits Port Milwaukee to see how… -
Democrats face crack-up on Trump’s tariffsTrump’s aggressive — and unpopular — use of tariffs in his second term has created an opening for more trade-friendly voices in the party, after a decade in the political wilderness. Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed speaks… - A stinky cheese tariffBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Smoot-Hawley was bad…
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Small businesses struggling with inflation amid Trump tariffs ahead of midtermsWBZ News Weekend 6pm CBS News Chicago Saturday 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6pm KDKA News Saturday 6pm Your Stories From Your Community Reporters CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Trump rolls back some Canada tariffs as midterm election approachesBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Trump… -
Trump administration cancels some Canada tariffs, Sen. Susan Collins saysThe Trump administration has granted tariff exemptions on some Canadian products, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who’s facing a tough re-election battle in Maine, said Friday. The move is an implicit acknowledgement that President Donald… -
White House adds new tariffs on some Canadian importsCNBC's Eamon Javers reports on new tariffs that have been added to some Canadian imports after the White House removed tariffs that were affecting Maine. White House adds new tariffs on some Canadian imports -
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief… -
Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but ‘replacing’ them with other productsThe U.S. will issue tariff exemptions on several categories of Canadian imports, Sen. Susan Collins announced Friday. Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but âreplacingâ them with other products -
Embattled Susan Collins announces exemptions for Maine from Trump Canada tariffsRepublican facing tough re-election battle in state where Trump’s trade war with neighbor has stirred outrage Susan Collins, the embattled Republican senator for Maine, announced that several industries crucial to her state would be… -
Trump to lower Canada tariffs for certain agricultural goods, Collins saysThe Maine senator said she was able to secure tariff exemptions for a number of Canadian imports her state's agriculture industry relies on, less than two weeks before the midterm election. Sen. Susan Collins speaks with reporters as she…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.