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Will Sanae Takaichi be re-elected LDP president in 2027?
The odds
73%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 73% on Oct 19, 73% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 73% | ▲ 1 | 69¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Sanae Takaichi
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Sanae Takaichi took on Japan’s male-dominated politics and won – can she survive a second year in power?The straight-talking PM’s ability to manage Trump and stand up to China have endeared her to the public, but she may need friends closer to home to survive The visitors squeezed into the kiosk near Japan’s national diet building snap up… -
Sanae Takaichi has made Japan impossible to ignoreThe Japan Times For a leader often accused of dodging the press, thereâs one ironic thing about Sanae Takaichi: Sheâs front-page material.Since becoming Japanâs first female prime minister a year ago, she has divided opinion in a way… -
One year on, Sanae Takaichi’s big promises face reality check in JapanLast October, Sanae Takaichi became the first woman to stand at the lectern of Japan’s parliamentary hall as prime minister. Now, the test is whether she can deliver on her promises. Over the past twelve months, Takaichi has proved to be… -
Defence, debt, diplomacy: Sanae Takaichi's first year as Japan PMDefence, debt, diplomacy: Takaichi's first year as Japan PM Jaishankar thanks Rubio for 26/11 tribute, calls for zero tolerance on terror India clocking 7.2% growth despite West Asia conflict: Rajnath Singh US targets $500bn bilateral… -
Can Japan’s firebrand PM survive a second year in power? – Full Story podcastOne year ago, Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s first female prime minister, taking over a party in crisis. Since then, she’s defied the doubters, not just surviving as leader in a country that struggles with its gender politics – but winning… -
Japan enacts revised Imperial House Law to address shrinking royal familyJapan has brought into force a revised Imperial House Law aimed at addressing the declining number of members of the imperial family while preserving the traditional male-line succession to the throne. For the first time since 1947… -
Kyodo News Digest: Oct. 24, 2026Japan's revised law to maintain imperial family size takes effect TOKYO - A revised Imperial House Law took effect Saturday to address Japan's shrinking imperial family while retaining the traditional male-only succession system despite… -
Russia Holds Japanese Journalist In Moscow Prison As Bilateral Tensions Reach Boiling PointBy David Prior | Oct 24, 2026 | Featured, News & Analysis, Politics Japan’s Foreign Ministry dispatched officials to Moscow this week in an urgent bid to make contact with journalist Yuki Imai, arrested by Russia’s FSB security service on… -
Japan-Russia ties erode as journalist sits in Moscow jailJapan is demanding access to a journalist who was arrested by Russian security services. The Kremlin claims that Japan is using journalists as spies. Japanese Foreign Ministry officials were in Moscow this week in an attempt to contact a… -
Presidential week: Bells, pumps, pledgesAS El Niño threatens crops and farmers’ livelihoods, the Tugbong Solar Pump Irrigation Project in Leyte is harnessing the sun to keep rice fields productive while cutting fuel expenses. The project will irrigate 115 hectares of farmland… -
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Japan Pushes Back On Nuclear Shift Speculation As Debate Over America’s Nukes Heats UpJapan insists its longstanding nuclear weapons policy remains unchanged, even as officials consider a historic shift that could allow American nuclear weapons onto Japanese territory amid growing threats from China, Russia and North Korea… -
Japan gov't announces Vietnam leader To Lam to make 4-day visit from Nov. 8TOKYO - Vietnamese President To Lam will make a four-day visit to Japan from Nov. 8 for talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the top Japanese government spokesman said Friday. Lam, who heads Vietnam's ruling Communist Party, and his…
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