Brazil Presidential Election
65%Flávio Bolsonaro
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva35%▲ 17
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Will Taiwan's Nuclear-Free Homeland repeal referendum pass? (2026)
The odds
80%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 79% on Oct 19, 80% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | ▲ 1 | 76¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan, Taiwan's Nuclear-Free Homeland
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Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to ChinaOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering… -
Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around IslandChina is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, with Chinese military and Coast Guard vessels operating in waters around the island every day. What would you like to watch today? Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around Island What Pollsters… -
China accused of pressuring families of Taiwan politicians ahead of key electionTaipei [Taiwan], October 24 (ANI): China is allegedly stepping up efforts to intimidate relatives of Taiwanese politicians it considers supporters of independence, raising concerns about possible interference in Taiwan’s upcoming… -
Iran's mountain shelters offer Taiwan a China survival playbookIran’s rapid post-strike recovery of its Eagle 44 airbase proves that hardened mountain shelters remain a decisive shield against precision firepower, transforming how inferior air forces survive and deter superior adversaries. This month… -
The China-Taiwan Diplomatic War Is More About Politics Than EconomicsTaiwan’s formal relationships in Africa and Latin America point to the real factors driving recognition decisions – and it’s not “dollar diplomacy.” An honor guard stands at attention with flags of Taiwan and Paraguay during a welcome… -
Taiwan Reports Chinese Naval and Official Ships Near IslandTaiwan: Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) has detected three Chinese naval vessels and seven official ships operating around the island in the morning. In social media post, the Ministry said the Republic of China (ROC) Armed… - Taiwan detects 3 Chinese naval vessels operating around its territoryTaipei [Taiwan], October 23 (ANI): Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) stated that it detected three Chinese naval vessels and seven official ships operating in the waters surrounding Taiwan up until 6 am (local time) on Thursday…
- China: Arming TaiwanIran Iraq IsraelSyria IsraelTurkey Yemen The plan also includes $2.3 billion in Harpoon anti-ship missiles and land-based launchers, plus over $1 billion in NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Surface Air Missile Systems). Another $1,1…
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Taiwan Detects Chinese Naval Vessels Near Its Shores, Military on AlertTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported the presence of three Chinese naval vessels and seven official ships operating in ... - Latest News. Find Breaking Headlines, Current and Latest international news at Lokmattimes.com Taiwan's… -
Taiwan says China using militia boats to expand ‘battlefield preparation’ in western PacificTAIPEI — China is combining militia vessels with coast guard ships to expand “battlefield preparation” around Taiwan and into the western Pacific, Taiwan’s Coast Guard said, warning the operations were also putting pressure on Japan and… -
Taiwanese Comedian’s Assault Case Raises Alarm Over China’s Transnational RepressionTaiwanese prosecutors have indicted five men accused of helping a Chinese national orchestrate an attack on comedian Huang Yi-hao in an alleged attempt to stop him from performing material mocking Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Huang, 44… -
China says no gray zone on Taiwan questionCGTN China says no gray zone on Taiwan question There is no gray area on the Taiwan question, and the Philippine side should abide by the one-China principle with concrete actions, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions