Student list margin of victory in Serbia? (Oct 25, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 25, 2027 · $305 today · $1.1K traded · $572 at stake · prices read just now

The odds

7.76%median

0%25%

Median 7.76%Middle half 6.29% – 9.24%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Student list, ≥5%	97%	▲ 70	95¢	99¢	$1.01	1.1K
Student list, ≥10%	12%				$8.33	576
Student list, ≥15%	8%	▼ 1	3¢	96¢	$1.04	122
Student list, ≥20%	6%		2¢	10¢	$10.00	10.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Student, Serbia

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European student protests take aim at Serbia's electionsNPR · 2 days agoStudents have been protesting across Europe. In Serbia, they've selected candidates to run for parliament in Sunday's elections. And they're aiming to end 14 years of government by the populist leader Aleksandar Vucic. European student…
Student movement takes Serbia's Vučić to the wire in neck-and-neck electionBBC News · 3 days agoIf Sunday's parliamentary elections really are a battle for the heart of Serbia, then who better than a cardiologist to be one of the leading figures in the race. Ilija Srdanović appears an unlikely opponent for Serbia's long-serving…
How a leaderless student movement could topple Serbia’s autocratThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Gazela Pudar Drasko is…
Serbia’s longtime leader faces biggest political test as students mount election challengeFox News · 3 days agoAleksandar Vucic says Serbia is deepening ties with Washington while balancing relations with Russia and China, standing by Israel and resisting calls to recognize Kosovo. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic resigned from the presidency in…
Friday briefing: How a leaderless student group is challenging power in Serbiathe Guardian · 3 days agoIn today’s newsletter: Born from the fury surrounding the deadly Novi Sad station collapse, Serbia’s Student List has taken its protests all the way to the elections in an unprecedented grassroots campaign Good morning. As waves of…
Massive student-led rally marches in Belgrade ahead of Serbian electionthe Guardian · 4 days agoStudent List movement hopes to oust the party of veteran leader Aleksandar Vucic in a pivotal vote on Sunday Explained: what’s at stake in Serbia’s election? The key players, main issues and potential fallout About 150,000 supporters of…
A tense election in Serbia will decide if a student movement can topple populist leader VucicThe Washington Post · 3 days agoVoters in Serbia will decide in a tense parliamentary ballot this weekend whether to extend the 14-year rule of Russia-backed populist strongman Aleksandar Vucic or back a youth movement behind nearly two years of protests seeking…
Huge crowds gather at final pre-election rally of Serbia's studentsThe Washington Post · 4 days agoThe Washington Post Hundreds of thousands of supporters of Serbia’s protesting students have gathered for the final campaign rally ahead of the tense parliamentary election on weekend in a mounting challenge to the Balkan country’s…
Why a student protest movement is challenging 12 years of Vučić rule in SerbiaBBC News · 4 days agoYoung Serbians have been the driving force behind the movement, but none of the candidates are students Rallies have been taking place across Serbia on Thursday, the final day of campaigning ahead of a snap election billed as a referendum…
Thousands of Serbian Americans to vote in critical parliamentary electionCBS News · 45 h agoFor two years now, Serbia has seen mass protests led by young people demanding change after a decade and a half under the increasingly authoritarian rule of Aleksandar Vucic. They are demanding political change, with many students running…
Serbian student movement challenges ruling party in 2026 electionsCrypto Briefing · 36 h agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
Can Serbia's students win this weekend's vital election?RTE.ie · 2 days agoAnalysis: An infrastructure disaster last year has become the catalyst for Serbia's biggest political challenge in years On 1 November 2024, the canopy of a newly renovated railway station in Novi Sad collapsed, killing 16 people. This…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onRepublic Electoral Commission of Serbia

Trading closesOct 25, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.1K (1,789 contracts)

Today$305

This week$1K

At stake$572

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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