When will Serbia call its presidential election?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world For Sun 9:00 AM ET · $322 today · $3.5K traded · $1.6K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

Nov 15, 2026even chance by

Before Nov 1, 202613%▼ 6
Before Dec 1, 202695%▲ 4

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 1, 2026: 24% on Oct 20, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 26, 11 PM ETBefore Nov 1, 2026: 19% → 10%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Oct 1, 2026	1%				$100.00	5.6K
Before Oct 15, 2026	2%				$50.00	6.7K
Before Nov 1, 2026	13%	▼ 6	11¢	15¢	$6.67	5.4K
Before Dec 1, 2026	95%	▲ 4	91¢	98¢	$1.02	2.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Serbia, Serbian

Search ›

Serbian Americans head to consulate in Chicago to vote in Serbia's electionCBS News · 46 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 9:48 AM CDT / CBS/AP Sunday was election day in Serbia, and hundreds of Serbian Americans from across the Midwest cast their votes in Chicago in the middle of the night. Hundreds of Serbian Americans who haven't voted in…
Student-backed movement leads to political shakeup in SerbiaNPR · 28 h agoThere's a political earthquake in Serbia as student-backed movement wins parliamentary election, ending more than a decade of dominance by a Moscow-backed populist leader. Student-backed movement leads to political shakeup in Serbia…
Serbian Americans in Chicago vote in critical parliamentary electionCBS News · 37 h agoCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm
How a movement of students brought down Serbia's VučićBBC News · 36 h agoTheirs is a movement born from tragedy that began with students blockading streets and turned into almost daily protests and a national movement against corruption and government negligence. In just under two years the students have…
Early reports suggest record high turnout in Serbia electionsBBC News · 46 h agoPeople queue outside a polling station in Novi Sad, Serbia's second-largest city Early reports suggest Serbian voters have turned out in large numbers for the country's election, as a student protest movement attempts to end the rule of…
In Serbia, a very different student movement just ousted another European strongmanCNN · 21 h agoAnother one of eastern Europe’s authoritarian leaders has been vanquished by an upstart movement, with Serbia’s long-term president Aleksandar Vucic unexpectedly losing out to a student-led campaign. While young people elsewhere in Europe…
Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić concedes defeat in fiercely contested parliamentary electionthe Guardian · 40 h agoVučić’s 12-year reign looks to have been ended by record turnout of voters in election provoked by student-led protests Serbia’s veteran leader Aleksandar Vučić has conceded defeat to the student movement, ushering in a seismic political…
Joy and disbelief on Serbian streets as Vučić concedes election defeatbbc.com · 38 h agoThere were scenes of jubilation on the streets of the Serbian capital, Belgrade, after the country's long-standing leader Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat in Sunday's parliamentary elections. He was defeated by the Student List, a movement…
Serbia's veteran ruler Vučić concedes election to student-led protest movementBBC News · 39 h agoSerbia's long-standing leader Aleksandar Vučić has admitted defeat to the student-led protest movement in snap parliamentary elections. Preliminary figures provided by Serbia's election commission indicated a record high turnout, which…
Serbia's Vučić concedes election defeat to student-led protest movementBBC News · 47 h agoSerbia's long-standing leader Aleksandar Vučić has conceded defeat to the student-led protest movement in the country's snap parliamentary election. Preliminary figures provided by Serbia's election commission indicated a record high…
Hundreds of Serbian Americans vote for parliamentary elections from ChicagoCBS News · 46 h agoSunday was election day in Serbia, and hundreds of Serbian Americans from across the Midwest cast their votes in Chicago in the middle of the night. One of those voters, Marko Teofilovic, joins Suzanne Le Mignot remotely. Hundreds of…
Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat in Serbia's parliamentary election, marking political shiftCBS News · 39 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 5:30 PM EDT / AP The long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, conceded defeat on Sunday in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that…

Related markets

All around the world ›

Elections › Around the world

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

>99%Student List – Students Win

Student List – Students Win>99%▲ 73
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia<1%▼ 74
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%

7 more

Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%

Elections › Around the world

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

>99%Lula da Silva <4%

Lula da Silva <4%>99%▲ 82
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 5

5 more

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 36
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 38
Lula da Silva 4-8%<1%▼ 1
Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
Lula da Silva 12%+<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

75%Yashar

Yashar75%▲ 4
Likud25%▼ 5
Together<1%

3 more

Shas<1%
The Democrats<1%
Otzma Yehudit<1%

Elections › Around the world

Next French Presidential Election

45%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen45%▲ 1
Édouard Philippe18%▲ 2
David Lisnard14%

42 more

Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%
Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
François Hollande3%
Bruno Retailleau1%
Éric Zemmour1%
Jordan Bardella1%
Gabriel Attal1%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Sarah Knafo1%
Christine Lagarde<1%
Xavier Bertrand<1%
Sébastien Lecornu<1%
Marion Maréchal<1%
François Ruffin<1%
Ségolène Royal<1%
François Asselineau<1%
Jean Castex<1%
Natacha Polony<1%
Laurent Wauquiez<1%
Marine Tondelier<1%
Fabien Roussel<1%
Olivier Faure<1%
Clémentine Autain<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
Michel Barnier<1%
Valérie Pécresse<1%
François Bayrou<1%
Élisabeth Borne<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
Gérald Darmanin<1%
Carole Delga<1%
Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
Manuel Bompard<1%
Mathilde Panot<1%
Juan Branco<1%
Clémence Guetté<1%
Karim Bouamrane<1%
Lucie Castets<1%
Yannick Jadot<1%
François Baroin<1%
Anasse Kazib<1%
Sylvain Durif<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

21.7median

1639

Median 21.7Middle half 19.2 – 23.9

Elections › Around the world

Bulgaria Presidential Election

71%Iliana Iotova

Iliana Iotova71%▼ 4
Аndrey Gyurov28%▲ 4
Nikolai Denkov<1%

11 more

Blagomir Kotsev<1%
Rosen Zhelyazkov<1%
Kostadin Kostadinov<1%
Natalia Kiselova<1%
Yanaki Stoilov<1%
Krum Zarkov<1%
Atanas Atanasov<1%
Boyko Borissov<1%
Delyan Peevski<1%
Vassil Terziev<1%
Rosen Plevneliev<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNational Assembly of the Republic of Serbia, Government of the Republic of Serbia

MeasuredNov 1, 2026 9:00 AM ET

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$3.5K (20,587 contracts)

Today$322

This week$300

At stake$1.6K

In the news126 headlines today, 605 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Serbia agrees to or announces a formal decision by the Speaker of the National Assembly calling the election for President of Serbia before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions