How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Feb 1, 2029 · $264 today · $300 traded · $300 at stake · prices read 4 h ago

The odds

52.5median

4062

Median 52.5Middle half 50.1 – 54.8

How the odds have moved

Median: 51.8 on Oct 31, 52.5 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 42	97%	▲ 1	94¢		$1.03
At least 44	96%	▲ 2	92¢		$1.04
At least 46	95%	▲ 3	90¢	99¢	$1.01
At least 47	93%	▲ 4	88¢	98¢	$1.02
At least 48	87%	▲ 8	82¢	92¢	$1.09	41.00
At least 49	82%	▲ 9	77¢	87¢	$1.15
At least 50	76%	▲ 11	71¢	81¢	$1.23	200
At least 51	67%	▲ 10	62¢	72¢	$1.39
At least 52	56%	▲ 9	51¢	61¢	$1.64	200
At least 53	45%	▲ 7	40¢	50¢	$2.00
At least 54	34%	▲ 5	29¢	39¢	$2.56
At least 55	23%	▲ 4	18¢	28¢	$3.57
At least 56	12%	▲ 2	7¢	17¢	$5.88
At least 58	8%	▲ 1	3¢	13¢	$7.69
At least 60	4%			8¢	$12.50

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate

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Democrat Haley Stevens endorses Republican in Michigan U.S. Senate raceCBS News · 7 h agoCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Democrat Haley Stevens…
Michigan Senate race heats up as infighting erupts among DemocratsFox News · 26 h agoFox News senior national correspondent Rich Edson reports on the pivotal Michigan Senate race as Election Day looms. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., discusses Democrats' midterm strategy and more on 'Fox News Sunday.' Michigan Senate race heats…
Democrat Haley Stevens appears with Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers amid rift with Senate nominee Abdul El-SayedCBS News · 25 h agoNovember 1, 2026 / 12:11 PM EST / CBS News Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens appeared with Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers Sunday amid a rift with Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed that has come front and center in the final…
Democrats Get Triple Boost in Key Senate Battlegrounds Days Before MidtermsNewsweek · 2 days agoOct 31, 2026 at 09:07 AM EDT Oct 31, 2026 at 09:08 AM EDT Democrats have gained an encouraging late boost in the battle for the Senate, with new polling placing their candidates ahead in three races that could shape control of the chamber…
Democrat Haley Stevens Endorses Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate RaceNational Review · 23 h agoStevens cited a growing rift between her and Abdul El-Sayed, as well as the nominee’s association with extremist political streamer Hasan Piker.
Republicans, Democrats discuss high-dollar spending on contentious Texas Senate raceCBS News · 31 h agoNovember 1, 2026 / 6:00 AM CST / CBS Texas With early voting over and Election Day nearly upon us, the contest for U.S. Senate in Texas continues to consume attention and headlines nationwide. State Rep. James Talarico is hoping to become…
In a polarized country, Democrats have a tougher path to the SenateThe Washington Post · 32 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Split delegations in…
‘Lock in’: Michigan Democrats look to stop open fighting in key Senate raceThe Washington Post · 2 days agoMichigan’s key Senate race devolved into open fighting Friday night, with warring statements from progressive Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens, the more centrist Democrat who lost the primary. The fighting, mere…
Democrat endorses Republican candidate in key Michigan Senate race as party spat escalatesBBC News · 24 h agoA Democrat in Michigan has endorsed the Republican candidate in the state's closely-fought US Senate contest, as a spat with her own party's candidate Abdul El-Sayed escalated just days before the vote. Haley Stevens, a former…
Midterm Elections Live Updates: Trump to Visit Senate Battlegrounds as Democrats Feud in Michigan@nytimes · 29 h agoThe president was set to campaign in Iowa and Kansas two days before the elections. Tensions between Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens disrupted a Democratic unity effort in Detroit. President Trump was scheduled to travel on Sunday to…
Democrats and Republicans take different paths as they try to win the SenateNBC News · 3 days agoDemocrats and Republicans are deploying very different closing messages as they flood the airwaves in the final days of the fight for the Senate majority, according to an analysis of more than 600 television ads launched in October…

Related markets

All senate ›

Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

31%None

None31%▲ 6
IA10%▲ 1
IA, KS6%▼ 5

125 more

KS4%
All 73%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS3%▲ 1
AK, IA2%▲ 1
AK2%▲ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX2%▲ 1
ME2%
IA, ME1%
IA, KS, ME1%
OH1%
TX1%
IA, KS, TX1%
IA, TX1%
IA, OH1%
AK, KS1%
MI1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, OH1%
IA, KS, OH1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, OH1%
IA, KS, OH, TX1%
IA, KS, MI1%
KS, OH1%
IA, MI1%▼ 1
KS, TX1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%
AK, KS, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME<1%
AK, IA, OH<1%
AK, IA, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
IA, ME, TX<1%
KS, ME<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME<1%
IA, ME, OH<1%
IA, MI, OH<1%
IA, MI, TX<1%
IA, OH, TX<1%

Elections › Senate

Texas Senate winner? (2026)

75%James Talarico

James Talarico75%▲ 6
Ken Paxton26%▼ 6

Elections › Senate

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

74%Democratic Party

Democratic Party74%▲ 2
Republican Party27%▼ 2

Elections › Senate

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

73%Democrats sweep

Democrats sweep73%▲ 4
D-House, R-Senate21%▼ 5
Republicans sweep6%▼ 1

1 more

R-House, D-Senate1%

Elections › Senate

Michigan Senate winner? (2026)

77%Abdul El-Sayed

Abdul El-Sayed77%▲ 8
Mike Rogers23%▼ 7

Elections › Senate

Texas Senate Election Winner

76%James Talarico (D)

James Talarico (D)76%▲ 5
Ken Paxton (R)25%▼ 5

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Congress

Trading closesFeb 1, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$300 (441 contracts)

Today$264

This week$300

At stake$300

In the news439 headlines today, 2,543 this week

Followed here sinceOct 30, 2026

The rules

If the Democratic Party holds at least 42 seats in the U.S. Senate when the new Congress first convenes after the November 7, 2028, general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions