Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
32%December 31
- June 30, 202732%▲ 1
- December 3132%▲ 3
Install
New Supreme Court justice confirmed? (Before Jan 21, 2029)
The odds
57%Before Jan 21, 2029
- Before Jan 21, 202957%
- Before 202841%
- Before June 202719%
- Before 202717%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 21, 2029: 56% on Oct 20, 57% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 21, 2029 | 57% | 55¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 2.1K | |
| Before 2028 | 41% | 38¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 4.4K | |
| Before June 2027 | 19% | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 10.5K | |
| Before 2027 | 17% | 16¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 208.9K | |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 17.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, New Supreme Court
Search ›-
Supreme Court of the United States news - Today’s latest updatesThe Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The Supreme Court has rejected an effort from the Trump administration to restrict some medical… -
Donald Trump's administration faces new Supreme Court fight over controversial transgender inmate policyThe Supreme Court has blocked the Trump administration from enforcing restrictions on gender-affirming care for transgender inmates in federal prisons while a legal challenge continues. The order allows treatment to remain available for… -
Second Amendment fight moves beyond guns with Supreme Court poised for big rulingNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Two federal court… -
Switchblade, body armor rulings reveal stakes in Supreme Court AR-15 showdownNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Switchblade, body armor… -
Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme CourtFox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments about the Supreme Court on ‘Fox & Friends.’ ... Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme Court Fox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses… -
One of Utah's new Supreme Court justices signed a Prop. 4 repeal petitionSALT LAKE CITY — One of Utah's newest Supreme Court justices signed a petition to repeal Proposition 4, according to a review of public records. But Justice Michael Menssen has not recused himself from hearing appeals on the case involving… -
US supreme court sides with Republicans on rejecting student IDs in New Hampshire midtermsVoting rights advocates say directive would disenfranchise young and low-income voters, but Republicans say it’s needed to combat voter fraud The US supreme court has cleared the way for New Hampshire to prohibit student IDs as a form of… -
Home distillers rejoice as US Supreme Court considers whether to finally legalise moonshineGeno Stecks, 66, of Wyoming, began making homemade moonshine two years ago Wyoming mechanic and amateur moonshiner Geno Stecks proudly details the modifications he's made at his two-bedroom home to facilitate his hobby of distilling liquor… -
Supreme Court blocks use of student IDs as voter identification in New HampshireFirst Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli examines the growing dispute over voter eligibility verification in California. Los Angeles County election officials acknowledge they lack the resources to verify the citizenship status of… -
Jackson again publicly breaks with Supreme Court as justices side with GOP in last-minute voter ID fightFirst Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli examines the growing dispute over voter eligibility verification in California. Los Angeles County election officials acknowledge they lack the resources to verify the citizenship status of… -
Trump administration asks Supreme Court to resume Big Bend border wallCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Trump administration asks… -
Supreme Court rules New Hampshire can ban use of student IDs for midterm votersOctober 22, 2026 / 7:53 PM EDT / CBS/AP The Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The justices granted a Republican-backed emergency appeal and…
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
40%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar40%▼ 5
- Cassidy Hutchinson26%▼ 3
- John Brennan21%▼ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan14%▼ 2
- Fani Willis14%
- Anthony Fauci14%▼ 1
- Jack Smith11%
- Gustavo Petro11%
- Lisa Cook10%
- James Clapper10%
- Andrew Weissmann10%
- Gavin Newsom10%
- Peter Strzok9%
- Hunter Biden9%
- Keith Ellison9%
- E. Jean Carroll9%▲ 3
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 2
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom9%
- Chris Krebs8%
- Tim Walz7%▼ 2
- Alvin Bragg7%▲ 1
- Lisa Monaco7%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle7%
- Letitia James6%
- Jacob Frey6%
- Adam Schiff6%▼ 2
- Pam Bondi6%▲ 2
- Mark Milley6%
- Elissa Slotkin6%
- Mark Kelly6%
- Liz Cheney6%
- Joe Kent6%
- Leon Black6%
- Chris Christie5%
- Christopher Wray5%
- Tucker Carlson5%
- Jerome Powell5%▲ 1
- Reid Hoffman5%
- George Soros5%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Barack Obama3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Joe Biden3%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
Aug 7, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202726%▲ 7
- Before Apr 1, 202731%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202743%▲ 1
2 more
- Before Oct 1, 202762%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202868%▲ 4
Who will be arrested in 2026?
36%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar36%▲ 3
- John Brennan23%▲ 1
- Mahmoud Khalil14%
22 more
- Anthony Fauci9%
- Tom Homan9%
- James Clapper8%
- Letitia James8%
- Lee Jae Myung6%
- Lisa Cook6%
- Susan Rice6%
- Candace Owens5%
- Lee Jun-seok5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu5%▼ 1
- Adam Schiff4%▼ 3
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%
- Bill Clinton4%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Gavin Newsom3%
- Pam Bondi3%
- John Kerry3%
- Brandon Johnson3%
- Kash Patel3%
- Loretta Lynch3%▼ 2
- Barack Obama2%
- Joe Biden2%▼ 1
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?
23%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20264%
- December 31, 202723%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions