Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
32%December 31
- June 30, 202732%▲ 1
- December 3132%▲ 3
Install
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
The odds
41%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar41%▼ 4
- Cassidy Hutchinson27%▼ 3
- John Brennan21%▼ 1
- Dan J. Sullivan14%▼ 2
- Fani Willis14%
- Anthony Fauci14%▼ 1
- Jack Smith11%
- Gustavo Petro11%
- Lisa Cook10%
- James Clapper10%
- Andrew Weissmann10%
- Gavin Newsom10%
31 more
- Peter Strzok9%
- Hunter Biden9%
- Keith Ellison9%
- E. Jean Carroll9%▲ 3
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom9%
- Chris Krebs8%
- Miles Taylor8%▲ 2
- Tim Walz7%▼ 2
- Alvin Bragg7%▲ 1
- Lisa Monaco7%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle7%
- Letitia James6%
- Jacob Frey6%
- Adam Schiff6%▼ 2
- Pam Bondi6%▲ 2
- Mark Milley6%
- Elissa Slotkin6%
- Mark Kelly6%
- Liz Cheney6%
- Joe Kent6%
- Leon Black6%
- Chris Christie5%
- Christopher Wray5%
- Tucker Carlson5%
- Jerome Powell5%▲ 1
- Reid Hoffman5%
- George Soros5%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Barack Obama3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Joe Biden3%
How the odds have moved
Ilhan Omar: 39% on Oct 20, 41% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | 41% | ▼ 4 | 40¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 345.5K |
| Cassidy Hutchinson | 27% | ▼ 3 | 26¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 13.8K |
| John Brennan | 21% | ▼ 1 | 19¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 72.5K |
| Dan J. Sullivan | 14% | ▼ 2 | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 8.4K |
| Fani Willis | 14% | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 11.1K | |
| Anthony Fauci | 14% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 519.8K |
| Jack Smith | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 75.6K | |
| Gustavo Petro | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 12.1K | |
| Lisa Cook | 10% | 10¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | 32.9K | |
| James Clapper | 10% | 10¢ | 10¢ | $10.42 | 20.2K | |
| Andrew Weissmann | 10% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 3.6K | |
| Gavin Newsom | 10% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 15.9K | |
| Peter Strzok | 9% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.53 | 12.1K | |
| Hunter Biden | 9% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.53 | 19.9K | |
| Keith Ellison | 9% | 9¢ | 9¢ | $10.64 | 21.5K | |
| E. Jean Carroll | 9% | ▲ 3 | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 17.0K |
| Jennifer Siebel Newsom | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 12.4K | |
| Chris Krebs | 8% | 8¢ | 8¢ | $12.20 | 7.4K | |
| Miles Taylor | 8% | ▲ 2 | 5¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 2.1K |
| Tim Walz | 7% | ▼ 2 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.99 | 278.9K |
| Alvin Bragg | 7% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 24.7K |
| Lisa Monaco | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 1.8K | |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 7.7K | |
| Letitia James | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $15.38 | 68.3K | |
| Jacob Frey | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $16.13 | 12.8K | |
| Adam Schiff | 6% | ▼ 2 | 6¢ | 6¢ | $16.13 | 47.4K |
| Pam Bondi | 6% | ▲ 2 | 5¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 23.5K |
| Mark Milley | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | 8.9K | |
| Elissa Slotkin | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | 9.0K | |
| Mark Kelly | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | 19.3K | |
| Liz Cheney | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | 11.6K | |
| Joe Kent | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | 6.6K | |
| Leon Black | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 237 | |
| Chris Christie | 5% | 5¢ | 5¢ | $19.23 | 5.9K | |
| Christopher Wray | 5% | 5¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | 7.5K | |
| Tucker Carlson | 5% | 5¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | 13.0K | |
| Jerome Powell | 5% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | 28.1K |
| Reid Hoffman | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 5.1K | |
| George Soros | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 20.3K | |
| Hillary Clinton | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $26.32 | 53.0K | |
| Barack Obama | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | 124.2K | |
| Bill Clinton | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 58.5K | |
| Joe Biden | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | 27.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ilhan Omar, Cassidy Hutchinson, John Brennan
Search ›-
Trump demands Ilhan Omar immediately resign from CongressThe 'Ruthless Podcast' co-hosts discuss the latest on the Ilhan Omar controversy as she faces two federal investigations. 'Fox & Friends Weekend' co-hosts also weigh in on a report comparing the president to Hitler over the probes. Trump… -
Ilhan Omar called out for bizarre interview answer on marriage controversy'Fox News Sunday' host Shannon Bream and the 'Ruthless Podcast' panel weigh in on Ilhan Omar's comments about her marriage controversy and midterm elections, specifically the Michigan senate race. Ilhan Omar called out for bizarre… -
Trump Claims Ilhan Omar’s Seat ‘Conceded’ By DemocratsOct 25, 2026 at 01:04 PM EDT U.S. President Donald Trump declared Representative Ilhan Omar’s seat “conceded” by Democrats over federal court filings referring to her as Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, a name Omar has denied is hers. Prosecutors… -
Ilhan Omar dodges questions linked to immigration probeFox News' Madeleine Rivera reports on the federal investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar's path to U.S. citizenship and campaign finances. Ilhan Omar dodges questions linked to immigration probe Fox News' Madeleine Rivera reports on the… -
3 clues Ilhan Omar had sham marriage to brotherRepresentative Ilhan Omar has continued to deny allegations she fraudulently married her alleged brother Ahmed Elmi (el-mee) – but when asked if they were related this week, she cautiously replied: “not to my knowledge.” The Minnesota… -
Rep Ilhan Omar ducks questions tied to federal immigration probeRep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., faces a DOJ probe into her citizenship and immigration status. Criminal defense attorney Ken Belkin joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to analyze the allegations and potential legal implications. Rep Ilhan Omar ducks… -
Kevin McCarthy warns Rep Ilhan Omar can 'lose her citizenship' amid federal probeFox News Kevin McCarthy warns Rep Ilhan Omar can 'lose her citizenship' amid federal probe Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss the increased scrutiny facing Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., after a… -
This is not a laughing matter for Ilhan Omar, law professor saysLaw professor John Yoo discusses the legal probe into Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., on ‘The Will Cain Show.’ ... This is not a laughing matter for Ilhan Omar, law professor says Law professor John Yoo discusses the legal probe into Rep. Ilhan… -
GREGG JARRETT: Ilhan Omar could face indictment, denaturalization and deportationFox News legal analyst Gregg Jarrett breaks down the legal woes Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., could be facing on ‘Hannity.’ Lies, particularly spectacular ones, inevitably crumble over time when subject to scrutiny. A case in point is Rep… -
Explosive new details in Ilhan Omar investigationU.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro says Ilhan Omar is not the real name of the Minnesota lawmaker. Omar's office denies the allegation amid a federal investigation. Explosive new details in Ilhan Omar investigation U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro… -
Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at President Donald Trump's Iowa rally as he calls on Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar to resign from Congress. Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION 'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at… -
Ilhan Omar makes first public appearance following federal raid'Outnumbered' panel discuss Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., making her first public appearance since a federal raid on her Washington, D.C., home as part of an immigration investigation. Ilhan Omar makes first public appearance following federal…
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
Aug 7, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202726%▲ 7
- Before Apr 1, 202731%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202743%▲ 1
2 more
- Before Oct 1, 202762%▲ 3
- Before Jan 1, 202868%▲ 4
Who will be arrested in 2026?
35%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar35%▲ 4
- John Brennan23%▲ 1
- Mahmoud Khalil14%
22 more
- Tom Homan9%
- Anthony Fauci9%
- James Clapper8%
- Letitia James8%
- Adam Schiff7%
- Lee Jae Myung6%
- Lisa Cook6%
- Susan Rice6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu5%
- Candace Owens5%
- Lee Jun-seok5%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%
- Bill Clinton4%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Gavin Newsom3%
- Pam Bondi3%▼ 1
- John Kerry3%
- Brandon Johnson3%
- Kash Patel3%
- Barack Obama3%
- Loretta Lynch3%▼ 2
- Joe Biden2%▼ 1
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?
23%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20264%
- December 31, 202723%
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
66%Samuel Alito
- Samuel Alito66%
- Clarence Thomas46%
- John Roberts17%▼ 3
6 more
- Sonia Sotomayor8%▼ 1
- Elena Kagan5%
- Amy Coney Barrett5%
- Ketanji Brown Jackson4%
- Brett Kavanaugh3%
- Neil Gorsuch2%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions