Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

Kalshi Politics › Supreme Court & courts Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $52 today · $27.3K traded · $12.4K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

Jun 29, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 202716%
  • Before Apr 1, 202717%▲ 1
  • Before Jul 1, 202751%▼ 5
  • Before Oct 1, 202755%
  • Before Jan 1, 202861%▲ 2

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Oct 1, 2026 1% $100.00 63.1K
Before Jan 1, 2027 16% 15¢ 17¢ $5.88 97.6K
Before Apr 1, 2027 17% ▲ 1 15¢ 19¢ $5.26 735
Before Jul 1, 2027 51% ▼ 5 50¢ 52¢ $1.92 21.0K
Before Oct 1, 2027 55% 51¢ 59¢ $1.69 7.00
Before Jan 1, 2028 61% ▲ 2 56¢ 66¢ $1.52 300

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Samuel Alito

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

39%Ilhan Omar
  • Ilhan Omar39%▲ 1
  • Cassidy Hutchinson30%
  • John Brennan25%▼ 1
40 more
  • Lisa Cook14%▼ 3
  • Anthony Fauci14%▼ 10
  • Fani Willis14%
  • Jack Smith14%▼ 1
  • Dan J. Sullivan13%
  • Gustavo Petro12%▲ 1
  • Letitia James11%▲ 1
  • Keith Ellison10%
  • Peter Strzok10%
  • James Clapper10%▲ 1
  • Tim Walz10%▼ 1
  • Gavin Newsom10%
  • Kimberly Guilfoyle10%▼ 2
  • Adam Schiff9%
  • Alvin Bragg9%▲ 1
  • Andrew Weissmann9%▼ 2
  • Hunter Biden8%▲ 1
  • Chris Krebs8%
  • E. Jean Carroll7%▼ 1
  • Lisa Monaco7%
  • Jacob Frey7%▲ 1
  • Miles Taylor6%▲ 1
  • Jennifer Siebel Newsom6%▼ 4
  • Mark Milley6%▲ 1
  • Liz Cheney6%
  • Mark Kelly6%
  • Hillary Clinton6%
  • Leon Black6%
  • Elissa Slotkin5%
  • Barack Obama5%
  • Christopher Wray5%
  • Tucker Carlson5%▼ 4
  • Reid Hoffman5%
  • George Soros5%▼ 4
  • Joe Kent4%
  • Bill Clinton4%
  • Jerome Powell4%▼ 1
  • Joe Biden3%
  • Pam Bondi3%
  • Chris Christie2%
KalshiCloses Dec 31 · $8K today

Who will be arrested in 2026?

32%Ilhan Omar
  • Ilhan Omar32%▲ 8
  • John Brennan22%▲ 1
  • Mahmoud Khalil15%▼ 1
22 more
  • Anthony Fauci9%
  • James Clapper9%
  • Letitia James8%
  • Lee Jun-seok7%
  • Candace Owens7%
  • Lee Jae Myung7%
  • José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero6%▲ 2
  • Gavin Newsom6%
  • Susan Rice6%▼ 1
  • Lisa Cook6%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu6%
  • Adam Schiff5%
  • Tom Homan5%
  • Loretta Lynch5%
  • Brandon Johnson4%
  • Hillary Clinton4%
  • Pam Bondi4%
  • Bill Clinton3%
  • John Kerry3%
  • Joe Biden3%
  • Barack Obama3%
  • Kash Patel3%
KalshiCloses Dec 31 · $523 today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.