Scarborough North by-election winner?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Mar 28, 2028 · prices read 11 h ago

The odds

93%Liberal Party

Liberal Party93%▼ 1
Conservative Party4%▼ 1
NDP3%

How the odds have moved

Liberal Party: 92% on Oct 19, 93% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
Liberal Party	93%	▼ 1	90¢	97¢	$1.03
Conservative Party	4%	▼ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.50
NDP	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Scarborough North, Liberal Party, Conservative Party

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Basil Zempilas lays into Premier’s trip to Port Hedland while addressing Liberal Party conferenceThe West Australian · 39 h agoOpposition Leader Basil Zempilas has ripped into Roger Cook’s visit to Port Hedland as the region grapples with a child protection crisis as he addressed the Liberal Party faithful on Sunday.
Conservative Party wins in British Columbia for first time in almost 100 yearsJust The News · 34 h agoThe conservatives won 64 of the 93 seats and the New Democrats won 27, according to Reuters. Conservative Party wins in British Columbia for first time in almost 100 years The conservatives won 64 of the 93 seats and the New Democrats…
Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro from the Liberal Party (PL) attends a closing campaign rally ahead of the presidential runoff, in Rio de JaneiroThe Lufkin Daily News · 2 days agoThe Lufkin Daily News People hold up a portrait of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro during the closing presidential campaign rally of his son Flavio Bolsonaro, from the Liberal Party (PL), ahead of the presidential runoff, in Rio…
British Columbia Conservative Party claims commanding majority in historic election winfreerepublic.com · 34 h agoThings are changing for our Northern Neighbor, first it was Quebec where Mark Carney's party was wiped out, now B.C. held a snap election called by Premier David Eby the super liberal running the province, the conservative party won a…
Conservative party wins first election in nearly a century in British Columbia@959thesportsnut · 35 h agoOct 25 (Reuters) – The opposition Conservative Party won an election in the Canadian province of British Columbia for the first time in nearly 100 years, promising to ramp up liquefied natural ‌gas production, provisional results showed…
Daniel Pitt: The Conservative Party’s history with deals and coalitions is a warning for nowConservative Home · 4 days agoDr Daniel Pitt is an Honorary Fellow at the University of Buckingham. Being courageous and ensuring the independence of your political party can pay off electorally. Kemi Badenoch has been clear: “If you want Conservative, you have to vote…
Angus Taylor flies into Perth, set to rev up his party at Liberal Party state conferenceThe West Australian · 3 days agoAngus Taylor has also flown into Perth to rev up his troops, as internal discontent is expected to be laid bare at the party’s annual State Conference held across the weekend.
‘You can work out how many decades!’ Ann Peacock on famous parents, racing, the Liberal Party – and her stalkerThe Sydney Morning Herald · 4 days agoFrom catching flying fruit on the campaign trail to board level racecourse politics, the PR powerhouse holds back little over lunch. Ann Peacock – with the same disarming directness she deploys to talk about horseracing, the Liberal Party…
Cariboo-Chilcotin MLA Lorne Doerkson on track to win re-election for third time in a rowNanaimo News Bulletin · 43 h agoPublished 9:18 pm Saturday, October 24, 2026 By Patrick Davies/100 Mile Free Press Lorne Doerkson has been sent back to Victoria for the third time by the voters of the Cariboo Chilcotin. Based on preliminary polls Doerkson, the incumbent…
LIVE BLOG: Eby steps down as B.C. NDP leader, concedes to ConservativesSummerland Review · 42 h agoPublished 9:43 pm Saturday, October 24, 2026 By Mark Page, Jeffery Kennett, John Arendt, Jen Zielinski Prime Minister Mark Carney is congratulating Lorne Dorekson on a projected B.C. Conservative majority government in the 2026 election…
Conservative Landslide in British Columbia Sends Warning to Mark CarneyNewsweek · 27 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 12:30 PM EDT British Columbia has elected a Conservative government for the first time in 98 years in a landslide victory that could be a warning for Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. The left-leaning New Democratic…
Conservative Bruce Banman wins third term as MLA for Abbotsford SouthAbbotsford News · 42 h agoPublished 9:45 pm Saturday, October 24, 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia candidate Bruce Banman has won his third term as the MLA for Abbotsford South. Banman celebrated his provincial election victory Saturday night (Oct. 24)…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElections Canada

Trading closesMar 28, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Liberal Party wins the next Scarborough North federal by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions