Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Dec 31, 2028 · $289 traded · $192 at stake · prices read 10 h ago

The odds

Dec 28, 2027even chance by

Before Jan 1, 202713%
Before Jan 1, 202851%
Before Jan 1, 202971%

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 17% on Oct 19, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027	13%	11¢	15¢	$6.67	1.6K
Before Jan 1, 2028	51%	48¢	53¢	$1.89	118
Before Jan 1, 2029	71%	66¢	75¢	$1.33	23.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Anthropic

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OpenAI, Anthropic, and Nvidia had record lobbying quartersThe Verge · 3 days agoIt was a busy summer for AI lobbyists. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Nvidia each had their highest-spending lobbying quarter between July and September, federal disclosures show. Nvidia spent the most of the group at $2.2 million, followed by…
Wall Street urging Anthropic, OpenAI to do their IPOs this year ‘before things get crazy’ — here’s whyNew York Post · 2 days agoWall Street is telling Anthropic and OpenAI that they had better launch their blockbuster IPOs sooner rather than later – and it goes well beyond the risks of an AI bubble, On The Money has learned. The mounting worry among big investors…
Alex Kantrowitz: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI will be looking for ways to fund the backbone of AICNBC · 3 days agoCNBC Alex Kantrowitz: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI will be looking for ways to fund the backbone of AI
UK funds £100m AI biosecurity lab with OpenAI and AnthropicTNW | Health-tech · 33 h agoThe two AI companies will add up to £200m in credits and model access, ahead of Wednesday’s Budget. The UK government will put £100m into a new AI Biosecurity Lab, which will use advanced AI to spot and respond to biological threats…
OpenAI and Anthropic spend limits per user in Next.jsDEV Community · 40 h agoNext.js · AI costs · 2026-10-17 You add an AI feature to your Next.js app, and the route works. Then one account, or one script, calls it a few thousand times overnight, and your OpenAI or Anthropic bill shows it the next morning. Most…
Chatbot AI Service Comparison: OpenAI ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini (for CRM Actions)DEV Community · 23 h agoShort answer: Choose OpenAI ChatGPT for dynamic casual dialogue, Claude for explainable complex reasoning, and Gemini when minimal-response latency dominates; keep all three behind one CRM action contract. The boundary is simple: the model…
What OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral and Meta actually ask in AI engineer interviewsDEV Community · 15 h agoPrepping for an AI engineering interview usually looks like this: twelve tabs of Glassdoor, a Reddit thread from 2023, three YouTube videos, a half-read paper, and no idea what this specific company will actually ask. So I went through 270…
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 24 h agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
Texas Sues OpenAI, Altman Over ChatGPT Safety Claims@law360 · 46 h agoThe Texas attorney general's office sued OpenAI and its chief executive Sam Altman in state court Friday, alleging the company breached consumer protection laws by unleashing a chatbot that often gives harmful advice and is addictive to…
UK Establishes AI Biosecurity Lab Backed by OpenAI and AnthropicUnite.AI · 43 h agoThe UK government is establishing the AI Biosecurity Lab, backed by £100 million of government funding and up to £200 million in company commitments from OpenAI and Anthropic, the Cabinet Office announced on October 24, 2026. The…
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues ChatGPT-maker OpenAI@kbtxnews · 48 h agoTEXAS (The Texas Tribune) - Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, for allegedly deceiving and harming Texans. This is the latest in a flurry of lawsuits filed against Big Tech companies and private corporations…
Prompt caching not working? Check it in OpenAI and Anthropic (Next.js)Stack & Ship · 44 h agoNext.js · AI costs · 2026-10-17 This guide pairs with Spend Caps Kit, and if you want the next step, read OpenAI and Anthropic spend limits per user in Next.js. Everything here is for a Next.js App Router route using the Vercel AI SDK (ai…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onOpenAI, Anthropic

Trading closesDec 31, 2028 1:59 PM ET

Traded$289 (1,783 contracts)

At stake$192

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If OpenAI or Anthropic announces it has achieved recursive self-improvement before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions