Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closed Sun 9:35 PM ET · $10.2K today · $29K traded · $9.1K at stake

Settled Cadu de LulaA day before, traders gave it 35%.

The last odds before it closed

—

✓ Cadu de Lula99%▲ 67
Alvaro Dias5%
Allyson2%▼ 63
Dário Barbosa1%
Carlos Jararaca1%
Henrique Lyra1%
Rodrigo Bolsonaro1%
Professor Robério Paulino1%
Arinalda do MLB1%

How the odds have moved

Cadu de Lula: 40% on Oct 20, 35% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 7 PM ETCadu de Lula: 39% → 33%
- Rio Grande Valley voters urged to check district before casting midterm ballotsKRGV · 5 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Last odds	Contracts
✓ Cadu de Lula	99%	28.7K
✗ Alvaro Dias	5%	1.8K
✗ Allyson	2%	15.5K
✗ Dário Barbosa	1%	2.5K
✗ Carlos Jararaca	1%	2.5K
✗ Henrique Lyra	1%	2.5K
✗ Rodrigo Bolsonaro	1%	2.5K
✗ Professor Robério Paulino	1%	2.5K
✗ Arinalda do MLB	1%	2.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Rio Grande, Norte Governor

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AACT NOW website tracking early voting wait time in the Rio Grande ValleyKRGV · 48 h agoHidalgo County, TX (KRGV) — The Advocacy Alliance Center of Texas says its new Line Check website lets voters see wait times at early voting sites in Hidalgo and Cameron counties. Long lines at some polling sites left voters waiting to…
State lawmakers balk at $113 million cost of net under Rio Grande Gorge Bridge, long road closure to deter suicidesSanta Fe New Mexican · 4 days agoPeople mourn for loved ones lost to suicide at the Rio Grande Gorge Bridge during a vigil in December. Installing physical deterrents to stop people from jumping from the structure has long been debated. After receiving millions of dollars…
US Army Showcases Quieter Rio Grande as It Sends More Troops to BorderNTD · 4 days agoThe U.S. Army showcased a quieter stretch of the Rio Grande in Roma, Texas—once a hot spot for illegal crossings—as it sends hundreds more soldiers to the southern border to combat increased drug cartel activity. What would you like to…
Paxton pitches tax deductions for medical, housing costs during Rio Grande Valley campaign stopsKRGV · 4 days agoEdinburg, TX (KRGV) — Republican Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton made campaign stops in Brownsville and Edinburg Thursday as he asked for votes in the race to replace outgoing Sen. John Cornyn. Paxton, who is running against Democrat…
Rio Grande Valley voters urged to check district before casting midterm ballotsKRGV · 5 days agoMcAllen, TX (KRGV) — Early voting is underway for the midterm election, and some voters may be in a different congressional district after last year's redistricting. The congressional maps were redrawn last year, and new territories were…
Hispanic voters helped bring Trump to power - in Texas, the tide may be turningBBC News · 4 days agoFather Roy Snipes is known locally as the Cowboy Priest - he resisted plans to seize chapel land to build Trump's border wall It was just before dawn in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, and the congregation were arriving for the Friday…
A Democratic win in Texas is a long shot – but Ken Paxton’s weakness is obviousthe Guardian · 3 days agoRepublicans are resorting to childish taunts to defend an uncommonly dishonorable state attorney general It’s a bit like Lucy with the football. Every few years, Democrats convince themselves that a Texas Senate seat might finally switch…
Trump’s top border official defends Big Bend border wall plan despite mounting oppositionthe Guardian · 3 days agoCBP commissioner Rodney Scott says $46bn Texas project is justified amid court-ordered pause on wall’s construction The Trump administration’s top border official defended plans to build a wall and other infrastructure in the Big Bend of…
The US military is taking control of more Texas borderlandDefense One · 2 days agoTwo National Defense Areas now cover about 420 miles of the Rio Grande river. Defense One / Bradley Peniston / bergserg via Getty Nearly 200 more miles of the U.S. border with Mexico have been placed under Air Force supervision, enabling…
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner · 5 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
The Runoff That Could Reshape Latin America: What's at Stake as Brazil Votes TodayLatin Times · 35 h agoVoting runs from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. by Brasília time throughout the country, per the unified schedule established by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Any voter standing in line at 5 p.m. is still entitled to cast a ballot, even if…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onTribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)

Trading closesOct 4, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$29K (61,074 contracts)

Today$10.2K

This week$21.3K

At stake$9.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Cadu de Lula wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions