Oscar nominees: Best Actress (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.1K today · $182K traded · $81.7K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

91%Julianne Moore

Julianne Moore91%▼ 1
Inde Navarrette82%▼ 4
Olivia Wilde76%
Sandra Hüller60%▲ 3
Virginie Efira50%▲ 2
Renate Reinsve45%
Ruth Madeley45%▼ 1
Rosalind Eleazar16%▼ 1
Emily Blunt12%
Zendaya12%▲ 6
Shailene Woodley12%▲ 6
Sophie Okonedo10%▲ 1

14 more

Anne Hathaway9%▼ 1
Daisy Edgar-Jones8%▼ 1
Cynthia Erivo8%▼ 2
Laura Linney7%▲ 1
Penélope Cruz7%▲ 1
Lily Gladstone6%
Joan Collins5%
Mikey Madison5%
Michelle Monaghan5%▲ 1
Scarlett Johansson4%▼ 1
Kirsten Dunst4%▲ 1
Michelle Williams4%
Natalie Portman4%
Dakota Johnson4%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Julianne Moore	91%	▼ 1	89¢	93¢	$1.08	19.6K
Inde Navarrette	82%	▼ 4	80¢	84¢	$1.19	134.3K
Olivia Wilde	76%		74¢	77¢	$1.30	28.9K
Sandra Hüller	60%	▲ 3	58¢	61¢	$1.64	13.8K
Virginie Efira	50%	▲ 2	48¢	51¢	$1.96	5.3K
Renate Reinsve	45%		43¢	46¢	$2.17	26.5K
Ruth Madeley	45%	▼ 1	44¢	45¢	$2.22	5.4K
Rosalind Eleazar	16%	▼ 1	15¢	17¢	$5.88	6.0K
Emily Blunt	12%		11¢	13¢	$7.69	15.6K
Zendaya	12%	▲ 6	2¢	13¢	$7.69	2.5K
Shailene Woodley	12%	▲ 6	1¢	12¢	$8.33	1.2K
Sophie Okonedo	10%	▲ 1	6¢	14¢	$7.14	757
Anne Hathaway	9%	▼ 1	6¢	11¢	$9.09	14.3K
Daisy Edgar-Jones	8%	▼ 1	6¢	10¢	$10.00	3.3K
Cynthia Erivo	8%	▼ 2	5¢	10¢	$10.00	6.4K
Laura Linney	7%	▲ 1	4¢	10¢	$10.00	1.5K
Penélope Cruz	7%	▲ 1	5¢	8¢	$12.50	3.6K
Lily Gladstone	6%		1¢	11¢	$9.09	565
Joan Collins	5%		4¢	16¢	$6.25	660
Mikey Madison	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.67	9.7K
Michelle Monaghan	5%	▲ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.50	144
Scarlett Johansson	4%	▼ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29	3.6K
Kirsten Dunst	4%	▲ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29	1.0K
Michelle Williams	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	9.2K
Natalie Portman	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	132
Dakota Johnson	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	859

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Actress (2027)Shailene WoodleyKalshi 12%Polymarket 1%11 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations

96%Julianne Moore

Julianne Moore96%
Inde Navarrette82%▼ 4
Olivia Wilde76%▲ 5
Sandra Hüller62%▲ 3

22 more

Virginie Efira54%▼ 2
Renate Reinsve41%▼ 8
Ruth Madeley40%▼ 16
Rosalind Eleazar18%▲ 5
Sophie Okonedo11%▼ 4
Dakota Johnson7%▲ 1
Mikey Madison7%
Daisy Edgar-Jones6%
Emily Blunt6%
Natalie Portman6%
Cynthia Erivo6%
Joan Collins6%
Michelle Monaghan5%▼ 2
Lily Gladstone5%
Zendaya5%
Anne Hathaway4%
Laura Linney4%▼ 2
Scarlett Johansson4%
Penélope Cruz4%
Michelle Williams4%
Kirsten Dunst1%
Shailene Woodley1%▲ 1

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Actress

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

46%The Odyssey

The Odyssey46%▲ 1
The Black Ball18%
You Can See Everything16%▼ 7

38 more

Dune: Part Three9%
Wild Horse Nine2%
Digger1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%
La Bola Negra95%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine92%▲ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three87%▲ 1
The Debut80%▼ 3
Project Hail Mary78%▼ 3
You Can See Everything71%▲ 3
The Invite58%▼ 1
Fjord39%
All of a Sudden36%
Obsession34%
I Play Rocky28%▼ 10
Elsinore25%▼ 6
Digger20%▼ 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▲ 2
Behemoth!19%▼ 12
Michael13%▼ 1
Disclosure Day8%▼ 1
Avengers: Doomsday8%▼ 2
Fatherland5%▲ 1
The Social Reckoning4%
The Drama3%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

83%You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything83%▲ 6
NAZA69%▼ 16
Once Upon a Time in Harlem68%▼ 8

7 more

American Doctor53%▲ 1
14th38%▲ 1
One in a Million28%▲ 1
Nuisance Bear23%▼ 5
Tutu21%▲ 1
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party18%▲ 1
Musk18%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

85%The Odyssey

The Odyssey85%
The Black Ball77%
Wild Horse Nine62%▲ 2

10 more

You Can See Everything55%▲ 14
Dune: Part Three47%▼ 1
Project Hail Mary39%▼ 2
Fjord31%▼ 3
Club Kid28%▲ 7
The Debut27%▼ 1
Elsinore27%▲ 9
The Invite26%▲ 5
Ink21%
Digger13%▼ 3

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%▲ 1
The Black Ball71%
Dune: Part Three65%▼ 4

10 more

Disclosure Day65%▼ 4
Project Hail Mary59%▼ 1
Behemoth!33%▼ 14
You Can See Everything28%
Wild Horse Nine26%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth11%▲ 1
Whalefall7%▲ 3
The Social Reckoning6%
The Drama5%
The Mandalorian and Grogu3%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

93%Matt Damon

Matt Damon93%
John Malkovich88%
Andrew Scott86%▼ 1

16 more

Tom Cruise56%▼ 1
Ryan Gosling45%▲ 2
John Turturro44%▲ 2
Robert Pattinson43%▼ 1
Anthony Ippolito36%▼ 1
Pedro Pascal19%▲ 1
Sebastian Stan17%
Jaafar Jackson17%
Timothée Chalamet10%▼ 13
Josh O'Connor6%▲ 1
Adam Driver5%▲ 1
Sam Rockwell5%
Brad Pitt5%
Javier Bardem4%
Robert Aramayo4%
Jeremy Strong1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$182K (314,934 contracts)

Today$1.1K

This week$182K

At stake$81.7K

In the news28 headlines today, 533 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Renate Reinsve has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.