AI capability growth this year? (Before 2027)
1,558median
1,5001,800
Median 1,558
Install
OpenAI share of requests on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)
The odds
19.27%median
17.8%23.4%
Median 19.27%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 18.3% | 57% | 52¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 18.00 | |
| Above 18.8% | 57% | 58¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | ||
| Above 19.3% | 50% | 49¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | ||
| Above 19.9% | 44% | 43¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | ||
| Above 20.6% | 34% | 32¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | ||
| Above 21.4% | 26% | 24¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 34.00 | |
| Above 22.4% | 20% | 18¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Vercel
Search ›- OpenAI Merges ChatGPT and Codex Into a Single PlanThe change came via a help-center document, not a big launch event. But for anyone who splits their day between chatting and coding, it matters. OpenAI links the change to product consolidation: it's bringing the agentic capabilities of…
- Family Sues OpenAI After ChatGPT Taper Advice, Seizure DeathThe parents of a Seattle woman who died after reducing her anti-seizure medication are suing OpenAI, saying ChatGPT pushed her toward a deadly choice and steered her away from doctors. The lawsuit centers on Bowen Wan, a 31-year-old…
- Sam Altman makes surprise South Korea visit as OpenAI builds on chip partnershipsOpenAI CEO Sam Altman made an unannounced visit to South Korea over the weekend, meeting with Samsung executives and reportedly holding talks with SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, building on existing partnerships with the country's leading…
- “Reduce overly flattering language”: OpenAI changes GPT-6 for free ChatGPT usersOpenAI is changing GPT-6 in ChatGPT to give more concise answers and use less overly flattering language. The update applies to Free and Go users and people using ChatGPT without signing in. The October 29 release note says the aim is to…
- OpenAI might rebrand its data centers as ‘AI compute campuses’Founder Summit begins Nov. 4, 9:00 a.m. ET. Get your pass savings & deals before it starts. REGISTER HERE. Data centers are deeply unpopular. But what if we called them something else? Axios reports that OpenAI is preparing a “PR blitz”…
- OpenAI is being sued for training ChatGPT with 'stolen' personal dataMashable A California law firm has filed a class-action lawsuit against OpenAI for "stealing" personal data to train ChatGPT Clarkson Law Firm, in a complaint filed in the Northern District of California court on Wednesday, alleges ChatGPT…
- OpenAI doubles Pro limits and merges ChatGPT and Codex usageOpenAI has announced changes to how ChatGPT and Codex usage works, according to BleepingComputer. The reporting is brief, so this article covers only what is confirmed and points out what is still unknown. The sources do not say which…
- Parents of woman who died of seizure after ChaGPT misguidance sue OpenAIBowen Wan was on anti-seizure medication, and chatbot provided her with a tapering schedule to reduce dosage A woman’s death from an epileptic seizure after she received dangerous advice from a chatbot has prompted her parents to sue…
- “The reduction … is canceled”: OpenAI reverses its ChatGPT Pro 200 usage cutOpenAI has canceled a planned reduction to the ChatGPT Pro 200 allowance for Work and Codex. Customers who already had the higher allowance keep it, while those on the lower allowance have had it doubled to match, the company says. “The…
- OpenAI To Limit Weapons Information For Teens on ChatGPT in Violence-Prevention PushFor all users, ChatGPT will be able to automatically end chats where someone appears to be fixating on violence, and OpenAI may temporarily pause accounts after multiple such chats OpenAI To Limit Weapons Information For Teens on ChatGPT…
- Parents sue OpenAI after daughter dies ChatGPT allegedly coached her off epilepsy medicationFor years, an antiseizure pill kept Bowen Wan’s epilepsy under control. According to a new wrongful death lawsuit, a single month of conversations with ChatGPT dismantled that stability. Wan, a 31-year-old Amazon machine-learning engineer…
- ChatGPT Maker OpenAI Reportedly Cuts Funding Target to $20B - WOWTALEInvestor appetite for AI megadeals is cooling. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft have outlined more than $740 billion in capital spending this year, and Wall Street is growing uneasy about negative free cash flow, mounting debt and the…
Related markets
All ai ›Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.21Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.21T.
- Reaches $1.5T90%
- Reaches $1.75T83%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
55%Google
- Google55%▲ 2
- Anthropic38%▲ 2
- OpenAI5%
12 more
- Meta1%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
- ByteDance<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
>99%No release by October 31
- No release by October 31>99%▲ 2
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
11 more
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
- October 27<1%▼ 16
- October 28<1%▼ 2
- October 29<1%▼ 3
- October 30<1%▼ 1
- October 31<1%▼ 1
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
66%Google
- Google66%▼ 4
- Anthropic29%▲ 2
- OpenAI3%
18 more
- Meta1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions