Open source token share Oct 26–Nov 1 (OpenRouter) (Open-weight models market share - Oct 26, 2026)
73.06%median
67.7%76.7%
Median 73.06%Middle half 72.8% – 74.07%
Install
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter) (Open-weight models market share - Nov 23, 2026)
The odds
71.44%median
50%94%
Median 71.44%
How the odds have moved
Median: 79.34% on Oct 27, 71.44% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60% | 65% | 12¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 5.6K | |
| Above 70% | 64% | 46¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 699 | |
| Above 72% | 45% | ▼ 62 | 1¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 1.2K |
| Above 74% | 45% | 3¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 527 | |
| Above 76% | 45% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 760 | ||
| Above 78% | 45% | 11¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 2.2K | |
| Above 80% | 37% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 17.00 | ||
| Above 82% | 37% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 8.00 | ||
| Above 84% | 37% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 541 | ||
| Above 86% | 37% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 793 | ||
| Above 88% | 37% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 762 | ||
| Above 90% | 12% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 6.00 | ||
| Above 92% | 5% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 4.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenRouter, Open-weight
Search ›- Death TanatoGothci: Tormenting Open-Weight Agents With a Broken BatteryHacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 This is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge Week 4: Ghost in the Machine Most toys you keep alive. This one you let die — on purpose, one…
- NecroCode 👻⚡ - Resurrecting Inactive Software with Open-Weight AIHacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 This is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge Week 4: Ghost in the Machine NecroCode is an AI-powered repository resurrection tool designed to…
- The Computing Séance: Channeling Turing, Lovelace & Hopper with Open-Weight GemmaHacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 For Week 4's theme "Ghost in the Machine", I built The Computing Séance — an interactive gothic-cyberpunk séance chamber where open-source AI bridges the veil…
- NecroShell & OfrendaAI: The Open-Weight Haunted Terminal & Digital Remembrance ShrineProprietary APIs get deprecated, price-hiked, or blocked by firewalls. An open-weight model belongs to humanity forever. If the power grid falters on Halloween night, NecroShell still boots from local silicon with the lights out and the…
- NVIDIA Launches Open-Weight Speech Model and 463,062-Hour Audio DatasetNVIDIA released Nemotron 3.5 Transcribe on October 28, 2026, an open-weight speech model that combines multilingual transcription, speaker attribution, translation, and audio question answering in a single checkpoint, alongside Granary v2…
- # EchoVault: Keeping Memories Alive with Open-Weight AIEchoVault is a privacy-conscious AI memory archive that turns voice recordings into searchable, preserved stories. Inspired by the Ghost in the Machine theme and the idea of preserving memories across generations, I wanted to build…
- Phantom Shell — a haunted terminal possessed by a local open-weight modelHacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 Challenge: #devchallenge #hf26challenge — Week 4 Ghost in the Machine Author: Ri Piao · X @pr742674 Phantom Shell is a CLI that lets an open-weight model possess…
- rest mesh ( Arduinouno q and open weight models)Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 This is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge Week 4: Ghost in the Machine. What if the most dangerous problems in a network were the ones…
- Phantom Files: Uncovering the Machine Ghost with Local Open-Weight AIHacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 This is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge Week 4: Ghost in the Machine "Every file has a story. Some should never have been opened."…
- Liquid AI Releases LFM3: 6 Open-Weight 2B-Class Multimodal ModelsLiquid AI has released LFM3, its new generation of Liquid Foundation Models. Liquid AI LFM3 is a family of 6 open-weight, 2B-class models built on one shared backbone. The family covers text, vision, audio, omni and decision tasks. Every…
- QuietQueue: batch the little chores with on-device, open-weight AIThis is a submission for the Hacktoberfest 2026 Week 3: Slow and Steady challenge. QuietQueue turns a scattered to-do list into a small session of related tasks. Paste one task per line, choose a time budget and an energy setting, and get…
- Hogwarts After Dark: An Arcane Investigation Engine Powered by Local Open-Weight AIHacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 This is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge Week 4: Ghost in the Machine Hogwarts After Dark is a complete, playable Victorian Gothic…
Related markets
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98%Google
- Google98%▲ 2
- Anthropic1%▼ 1
- OpenAI<1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
53%Google
- Google53%▲ 18
- Anthropic31%▼ 25
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- xAI1%
- Meta1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
AI capability growth this year? (Before 2027)
47%At least 1550 score
1,5001,800
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
71%Google
- Google71%▲ 19
- Anthropic24%▼ 18
- OpenAI3%
18 more
- Meta1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Best AI at the end of 2026?
51%Gemini
- Gemini51%▲ 21
- Claude34%▼ 25
- ChatGPT7%
5 more
- Grok2%
- Muse1%▼ 1
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions