Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter) (Open-weight models market share - Nov 23, 2026)
71.44%median
50%94%
Median 71.44%
Install
Open source token share Oct 26–Nov 1 (OpenRouter) (Open-weight models market share - Oct 26, 2026)
The odds
73.06%median
67.7%76.7%
Median 73.06%Middle half 72.8% – 74.07%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 69.2% | 87% | ▼ 6 | 6¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 632 |
| Above 70.7% | 87% | ▲ 4 | 4¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 610 |
| Above 71.3% | 85% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 458 | ||
| Above 71.8% | 85% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 246 | ||
| Above 72.3% | 85% | 88¢ | $1.14 | 44.00 | ||
| Above 72.7% | 85% | ▲ 2 | 13¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 321 |
| Above 73.2% | 36% | ▲ 25 | 85¢ | $1.18 | 288 | |
| Above 73.9% | 28% | ▼ 66 | 6¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 455 |
| Above 75.3% | 3% | ▼ 82 | 49¢ | $2.04 | 196 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenRouter, Open-weight
Search ›- EchoArchive: Preserving Authentic Spoken Memories with Local Speech & Grounded Open-Weight AIThis article is submitted for the Hacktoberfest 2026 Week 4 Challenge: Ghost in the Machine (October 26–31, 2026). EchoArchive is a local-first application designed to preserve authentic spoken oral histories and organize them into…
- LazyDesk AI: Transforming Messy Notes into Actionable Tasks with Local Open-Weight AILazyDesk AI is a privacy-first, local-inference AI productivity assistant that turns messy brain dumps into structured, prioritized tasks in seconds. We all dump unstructured thoughts into scratchpads, chat messages to ourselves, and…
- NVIDIA Launches Open-Weight Transcription Model for 40 LanguagesNemotron 3.5 Transcribe supports speaker attribution, speech translation and custom transcript formats. NVIDIA reports a 4.71% mean word error rate across nine English benchmark test sets. NVIDIA released Nemotron 3.5 Transcribe on October…
- The Open-Weight Explosion: Kimi K3.1 Pro, Atria Dawn, and a Lab That Made Its Own Model Worse on PurposeFor a few days at the end of October, the most interesting question in AI was not which model is... Tagged with news, llm, ai, opensource. For a few days at the end of October, the most interesting question in AI was not which model is…
- PaperTrail: Your Private Financial Co-Pilot Powered by Open-Weight AI 💸## What I Built PaperTrail — Your Private Financial Co-Pilot 💸 It uses open-weight multimodal AI to extract information from invoices and receipts, while a deterministic audit engine checks arithmetic discrepancies before records are…
- SlothOps 🦥⚡: I Built an Open-Weight AI Agent That Rewards Developer Laziness (Hacktoberfest 2026 Week 3)This is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Week 3 "Energy conserved today is clarity delivered tomorrow." — The Sloth Manifesto Here is a confession: I am tired of context-switching. I am tired of writing…
- Ofrenda: a private, offline ofrenda that remembers with open-weight modelsHacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 This is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge Week 4: Ghost in the Machine Ofrenda is a local-first virtual ofrenda, the altar families build…
- NecroShell & OfrendaAI: The Open-Weight Haunted Terminal & Digital Remembrance ShrineProprietary APIs get deprecated, price-hiked, or blocked by firewalls. An open-weight model belongs to humanity forever. If the power grid falters on Halloween night, NecroShell still boots from local silicon with the lights out and the…
- The Computing Séance: Channeling Turing, Lovelace & Hopper with Open-Weight GemmaHacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge: Ghost in the Machine Submission 👻🌼 For Week 4's theme "Ghost in the Machine", I built The Computing Séance — an interactive gothic-cyberpunk séance chamber where open-source AI bridges the veil…
- Tracking the Cyber Capabilities of Cheap Open-Weight Models — LessWrongHowever, Xiaomi doesn't share its evaluation methodology and there are some indications of benchmaxxing, such as the very high CyberGym score. We find that MiMo's performance strongly depends on the seed, and the same runs score 5.0/16…
- NVIDIA Launches Open-Weight Speech Model and 463,062-Hour Audio DatasetNVIDIA released Nemotron 3.5 Transcribe on October 28, 2026, an open-weight speech model that combines multilingual transcription, speaker attribution, translation, and audio question answering in a single checkpoint, alongside Granary v2…
- Own Your Intelligence: Open-Weight Models on Your Own InfrastructureOriginally published at Trida AI. Most companies building with AI rent their intelligence. Prompts go out to a provider's API, answers come back, and the bill scales with usage. The arrangement has a quieter cost than the invoice: the…
Related markets
All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
98%Google
- Google98%▲ 1
- Anthropic1%▼ 2
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
51%Google
- Google51%▲ 17
- Anthropic39%▼ 16
- OpenAI5%
12 more
- xAI1%
- Meta1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
AI capability growth this year? (Before 2027)
47%At least 1550 score
1,5001,800
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
71%Google
- Google71%▲ 22
- Anthropic24%▼ 20
- OpenAI2%▼ 1
18 more
- Meta1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Best AI at the end of 2026?
46%Gemini
- Gemini46%▲ 16
- Claude43%▼ 15
- ChatGPT7%▼ 1
5 more
- Grok2%
- Muse1%▼ 1
- Qwen1%
- Kimi1%
- Ernie<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions