Northern Ireland Assembly election: 2nd place (May 6, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes May 5, 2028 · prices read 6 h ago

The odds

47%DUP

DUP47%▲ 1
UUP30%▲ 1
Alliance7%▲ 1
Sinn Féin6%▲ 1
SDLP6%▲ 1
TUV4%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

DUP: 47% on Oct 19, 47% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
DUP	47%	▲ 1	43¢	51¢	$1.96
UUP	30%	▲ 1	26¢	34¢	$2.94
Alliance	7%	▲ 1	3¢	11¢	$9.09
Sinn Féin	6%	▲ 1	2¢	11¢	$9.09
SDLP	6%	▲ 1	2¢	10¢	$10.00
TUV	4%	▲ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Northern Ireland Assembly

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Former RCN leader launches bid for Northern Ireland Assembly seatNursing Times · 5 days ago20 October, 2026 By Steve Ford Source: I T S / Shutterstock.com Sinn Féin has announced Pat Cullen as one of its two candidates for the new constituency of South Belfast and Mid Down in the Northern Ireland Assembly election in spring next…
Culling foxes creates ‘chaos’ MLAs told as Stormont scrutinises hunting ban BillThe Irish News · 4 days agoCulling foxes creates “chaos” in the eco-system, a Stormont committee has been told as it heard evidence about a proposed bid to outlaw hunting. Concerns were also raised about the impact the Hunting with Dogs Bill – that would ban hunting…
Assembly member interviewed by police over Drumcree protestsBBC News · 10 days agoThe assembly member for West Belfast said it was a "voluntary PSNI interview" and he "gave a prepared statement" to officers A Northern Ireland Assembly member has been interviewed by police investigating protests over the Drumcree…
Sinn Féin MLA 'failed to show leadership' in damaged portrait rowBBC News · 10 days agoGlass protecting an oil painting of the former Belfast lord mayor Lord Browne was shattered when the portrait was vandalised in Belfast City Hall in 2024 A Sinn Féin assembly member has been found to have breached Stormont's code of…
The Guardian view on Stormont: voters in Northern Ireland deserve more than an endless cycle of dysfunctionthe Guardian · 11 days ago| Editorial The Guardian The Guardian view on Stormont: voters in Northern Ireland deserve more than an endless cycle of dysfunction After the executive’s failure to set a budget, and renewed culture-war confrontations, faith in the…
Jeffrey Donaldson's life in politics: From DUP leader to convicted child sex abuserBBC News · 11 days agoSir Jeffrey Donaldson's political career is a tale of two Good Fridays – the first a pivotal turning point, the second a shocking end. It was in 1998, the day the peace deal - the Good Friday Agreement - was signed, bringing an end to…
Twitter reacts as Arlene Foster steps down as Northern Ireland First MinisterHotpress · 11 days agoThe DUP leader said she would step down in a statement posted this afternoon. Arlene Foster has announced that she intends to step down as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) on May 28, and step down as First Minister of Northern…
Evening briefing: Seamstress who won hearts of millions dies aged 100 after ‘living life to the full’ and court delay would ‘prolong the sense of anxiety’ of Garvaghy Road residentsThe Irish News · 11 days agoCo Antrim seamstress who won hearts of millions dies aged 100 after ‘living life to the full’ A Co Antrim seamstress who created gowns for The Corrs and curtains for a former Prime Minister’s wife is being remembered as a woman who “lived…
Party leader apologises for wearing headphones during debateBBC News · 13 days agoUlster Unionist leader Jon Burrows has apologised for wearing wireless headphones in the assembly chamber during Monday's no-confidence motions in four Sinn Féin ministers. Following the debate, Speaker Edwin Poots said it had come to his…
Pothole-related claims increase by 600% in last five years, with majority from ABC areaArmagh I · 13 days agoThis morning (October 13) the Northern Ireland Assembly heard of a 600% increase in the amount of pothole-related claims in the last five years, resulting in a mammoth £4.4 million public liability spend. During a Plenary Session, DUP MLA…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElectoral Office for Northern Ireland

Trading closesMay 5, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Sinn Féin finishes in 2nd place in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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