Northern Ireland Assembly election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes May 5, 2028 · prices read 11 h ago

The odds

70%Sinn Féin

Sinn Féin70%▲ 1
DUP11%▲ 1
UUP8%▲ 1
Alliance4%▲ 1
TUV4%▲ 1
SDLP3%

How the odds have moved

Sinn Féin: 70% on Oct 19, 70% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
Sinn Féin	70%	▲ 1	69¢	77¢	$1.30
DUP	11%	▲ 1	7¢	15¢	$6.67
UUP	8%	▲ 1	4¢	12¢	$8.33
Alliance	4%	▲ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.50
TUV	4%	▲ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29
SDLP	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.67

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Northern Ireland Assembly, Sinn Féin

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More Sinn Féin politicians attend police interview over Garvaghy Road protestBBC News · 3 days agoAssembly members Gerry Kelly and Deirdre Hargey attended Musgrave Police Station in Belfast on Friday More senior Sinn Féin politicians have attended police interviews over their roles in a protest on the Garvaghy Road that blocked an…
Newton Emerson: Sinn Féin is betting on a ‘Bryson bounce’ for the Assembly electionThe Irish News · 2 days agoNewton Emerson writes a twice-weekly column for The Irish News and is a regular commentator on current affairs on radio and television. SINN Féin is to run three of its MPs, Chris Hazzard, Pat Cullen and Paul Maskey, in the Assembly…
O'Callaghan's remarks about rape trials example of 'arrogance' - Sinn Féin@NewstalkFM · 3 days ago12.12 20 Oct 2026 Sinn Féin has said that Jim O’Callaghan’s comments about rape trials are “arrogance on the part of the Minister”. With the Department of Justice and solicitors mired in an increasingly bitter dispute over a new flat fee…
Third Sinn Féin MP announced as Assembly election candidate as Paul Maskey to stand in West BelfastThe Irish News · 3 days agoA third Sinn Féin elected MP will contest next year’s Assembly election, with Paul Maskey announced as a candidate for a likely safe win in West Belfast. The move follows the announcements that Fermanagh and South Tyrone MP Pat Cullen and…
Sinn Féin today introduces legislation that aims to make spiking a standalone offence - Mark Ward TD - Sinn FéinSinn Féin · 4 days agoSinn Féin spokesperson on Community Safety, Mark Ward TD, will today introduce legislation that aims to make spiking a standalone offence. The HSE defines spiking as when someone gives you drugs or alcohol without you knowing or agreeing…
John Swinney's new Sinn Fein pals humiliated in Irish parliament for 'supporting the Nazis'Scottish Daily Express · 4 days agoMary Lou McDonald (front), leaves a recent meeting with fellow nationalists in Scotland, including John Swinney (back) and Wales(Image: Adrian DENNIS / AFP via Getty Images) John Swinney may have been squirming as his new pals in Sinn Fein…
'Sinn Fein backed Adolf Hitler to spite Britain in WW2', Irish PM claimsGB News · 4 days agoSinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald came into the firing line over a debate on Ireland's triple lock WATCH NOW: Irish MEP left red-faced in EU Parliament Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin has accused Sinn Féin of backing Adolf Hitler's Nazi…
Evening briefing: Sinn Féin announce third MP for Assembly election, the Belfast man behind New York pub success, and Antrim hurling final postponedThe Irish News · 3 days agoA third Sinn Féin elected MP will contest next year’s Assembly election, with Paul Maskey announced as a candidate for a likely safe win in West Belfast. The move follows the announcements that Fermanagh and South Tyrone MP Pat Cullen and…
David McCann: What Sinn Féin’s new Stormont candidates tell us about its plansThe Irish News · 4 days agoSINN Féin have had a busy week selecting candidates for the upcoming Assembly election, with some high-profile picks making the headlines. Two of their MPs are switching constituencies to stand for Stormont: Pat Cullen in South Belfast and…
Micheál Martin was unwise to call Sinn Féin Nazi sympathisersThe Irish Times · 4 days agoThe Irish Times MicheÃ¡l Martin was unwise to call Sinn FÃ©in Nazi sympathisers Fianna FÃ¡il founder Ãamon de Valera infamously conveyed his condolences on the death of Hitler Sir, â It was curious that Taoiseach MicheÃ¡l Martin in the…
Sinn Féin leaders interviewed by police over protest participationIrvine Times · 4 days agoSinn Féin leaders Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill have been interviewed by police officers investigating their participation in an allegedly unlawful protest in Portadown last month. The demonstration on the predominantly…
Taoiseach calls for Sinn Féin to apologise for ‘harrowing’ Provisional IRA actionsThe Irish News · 4 days agoTaoiseach Micheal Martin has called for Sinn Féin to apologise for the Provisional IRA’s actions as detailed in the Operation Kenova report. Labour leader Ivana Bacik said she supported the Taoiseach’s call and asked for time to be set…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElectoral Office for Northern Ireland

Trading closesMay 5, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Sinn Féin wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions