Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? (Before 2027)

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $36 today · $23.1K traded · $9.8K at stake · prices read 59 min ago

The odds

19%Claude

Claude19%
Gemini14%
ChatGPT7%
Grok2%
Qwen1%
Kimi1%
Ernie1%
Other1%

How the odds have moved

Claude: 21% on Oct 20, 19% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Claude	19%	18¢	19¢	$5.26	79.0K
Gemini	14%	14¢	15¢	$6.67	35.1K
ChatGPT	7%	6¢	7¢	$14.29	41.7K
Grok	2%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	22.5K
Qwen	1%		1¢	$100.00	5.8K
Kimi	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.1K
Ernie	1%		1¢	$100.00	1.9K
Other	1%		1¢	$100.00	20.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Text Arena

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Which Company Has #1 AI Coding Model end of 2026?Polymarket · 11 days agoThis market will settle to Yes if Anthropic has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena "Coding" leaderboard on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. If multiple models from…
Google Releases Gemini 4 Argon for Longer AI WorkWinBuzzer · 11 days agoThe Gemini app adds a toggle from chat to tasks that can continue while users are away. The app connects to more than 40 services, including Instacart for groceries and OpenTable for reservations. On macOS, Antigravity’s coding interface…
I Used Gemini 4 Argon to Fix a 1,000-Word Mess. It Edited the Structure and Left the Prose to Me.vocal.media · 11 days agoVocal I Used Gemini 4 Argon to Fix a 1,000-Word Mess. It Edited the Structure and Left the Prose to Me. The model handles 1 million tokens, but its Chinese drafts still read like a machine. Here is the fusion workflow that actually works…
Kimi K3 Beats GPT-6.1 Sol by 61 Elo Points [2026]Shattered · 12 days agoBeing open-weight means Moonshot publishes the model’s parameters so anyone can download, run, and fine-tune it without going through a paid API, subject to the license terms Moonshot attaches. That is a fundamentally different…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onLM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$23.1K (209,403 contracts)

Today$36

At stake$9.8K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.